US natgas prices climb 2% on lower output, hot summer forecasts

Reuters
24 May
UPDATE 1-US natgas prices climb 2% on lower output, hot summer forecasts

US LNG export feedgas hit record high in April

US gas output hit record high in April

US gas storage about 4% over five-year normal

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

May 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Friday ahead of the long U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend on a drop in output so far this month and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather this summer that should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.

Gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.4 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $3.327 per million British thermal units.

For the week, the contract was down less than 1% after losing around 12% last week.

Looking forward, the premium of futures for July over June NGM25-N25 rose to a record 39 cents per mmBtu with several forecasts projecting hotter-than-normal weather in July and August.

Some analysts projected energy firms added a near-normal amount of gas into storage during the week ended May 23 after they injected more gas than usual for five weeks in a row as mild weather kept both heating and cooling demand low.

Gas stockpiles were currently around 4% above the five-year (2020-2024) average. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 104.9 billion cubic feet per day in May, down from a monthly record high of 105.8 bcfd in April.

Energy traders said output reductions so far this month were due in part to maintenance on gas pipes, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Kinder Morgan said it is performing a turbine exchange at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26 that will reduce mainline capacity to around 2.2 bcfd.

Meteorologists projected the weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through June 7.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will drop from 99.5 bcfd this week to 96.1 bcfd next week before rising to 97.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.

The LNG feedgas decline this month was mostly due to maintenance reductions at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana, Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant under construction and in operation in Texas, and Cheniere's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana, and brief unplanned reductions at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.

Looking ahead, energy traders said they expect LNG feedgas to remain below April's record high in June with Cheniere planning to conduct about three weeks of maintenance on a couple of liquefaction trains at Sabine from around June 2-23.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at around $12 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended May 23 Forecast

Week ended May 16 Actual

Year ago May 23

Five-year average

May 23

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+97

+110

+84

+98

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,472

2,375

2,792

2,382

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+3.8%

+3.9%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.27

3.25

2.42

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

12.23

12.02

10.12

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.35

12.48

11.10

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

36

42

21

39

39

U.S. GFS CDDs

122

121

120

107

104

U.S. GFS TDDs

158

163

141

146

143

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

103.9

105.5

105.1

101.0

96.3

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.0

7.6

7.0

N/A

7.0

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

111.1

113.1

112.1

N/A

103.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.5

2.2

2.1

N/A

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

7.6

7.0

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

15.0

15.1

15.6

13.0

10.4

U.S. Commercial

5.1

5.6

5.1

4.8

5.7

U.S. Residential

5.0

5.8

5.0

4.2

6.6

U.S. Power Plant

32.0

33.3

31.8

31.7

29.7

U.S. Industrial

22.3

22.6

22.4

21.6

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.6

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

71.6

74.6

71.5

69.6

71.4

Total U.S. Demand

96.3

99.5

96.1

N/A

90.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

81

81

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

82

81

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

83

83

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 23

Week ended May 16

2024

2023

2022

Wind

13

13

11

10

11

Solar

7

8

5

4

3

Hydro

7

8

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

33

36

42

41

38

Coal

13

15

16

17

21

Nuclear

18

18

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.00

3.20

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.08

2.47

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.93

2.92

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.02

2.55

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.81

2.91

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.25

2.72

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.97

2.95

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.86

1.12

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.37

1.34

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

33.30

37.55

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

33.14

36.82

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

39.21

39.21

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

25.00

25.00

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

9.45

9.45

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Joe Bavier and Leslie Adler)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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