US natgas prices ease to 2-week low on lower demand and flows to LNG export plants

Reuters
17 May
UPDATE 1-US natgas prices ease to 2-week low on lower demand and flows to LNG export plants

US LNG export feedgas hit record high in April

US gas output hit record high in April

US gas storage about 3% over five-year normal

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

May 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% to a two-week low on Friday on a smaller decline in output than previously expected, lower gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants and forecasts for less demand in two weeks.

That should translate into extra supplies that will allow utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual for this time of year.

Gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.9 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $3.343 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since April 30 for a second day in a row.

That put the front-month down about 12% for the week after soaring about 29% over the prior two weeks.

Despite a heat wave in Texas this week, analysts said heating and cooling demand should remain low across much of the rest of the country in coming weeks, allowing utilities to keep adding more gas into storage than normal for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles were around 3% above the five-year (2020-2024) normal. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary one-week low of 103.1 bcfd on Friday. But that decline was smaller than previously expected. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Part of the reason for output reductions was spring maintenance on some gas pipes, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Kinder Morgan said it will perform a turbine exchange at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26 that will reduce mainline capacity to around 2.2 bcfd.

Traders have noted the Permian Highway reduction trapped some gas in the Permian basin, helping spot gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas to drop to around 94 cents per mmBtu on Friday, down from $1.58 For Thursday and an average of $1.87 over the prior seven days.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will hold around 96.3 bcfd this week and next before easing to 94.0 bcfd in two weeks.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.

The LNG feedgas decline so far this month was mostly due to reductions for maintenance at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant under construction and in operation in Texas, and brief reductions at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.

LSEG said gas flows to Corpus were on track to hold near a two-month low of 1.5 bcfd for a third day in a row on Friday, down from 1.6 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 2.0 bcfd during the prior seven days, while feedgas to Freeport was on track to rise to a four-month high of 2.2 bcfd on Friday, up from 1.5 bcfd on Thursday and an average of 2.0 bcfd over the prior seven days.

Week ended May 16 Forecast

Week ended May 9 Actual

Year ago May 16

Five-year average

May 16

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+106

+110

+78

+87

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,361

2,255

2,708

2,285

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+3.3%

+2.6%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.33

3.36

2.42

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.75

11.57

10.12

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.88

11.50

11.10

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

50

45

29

56

53

U.S. GFS CDDs

109

112

103

89

87

U.S. GFS TDDs

159

157

132

145

140

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

103.6

103.9

103.6

100.0

96.3

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.2

7.0

7.0

N/A

7.0

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

110.8

110.9

110.6

N/A

103.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.6

2.5

2.4

N/A

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

7.3

7.2

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

14.2

15.0

15.1

12.9

10.4

U.S. Commercial

5.9

5.1

5.4

5.1

5.7

U.S. Residential

6.5

4.9

5.4

4.9

6.6

U.S. Power Plant

31.5

31.9

31.1

33.6

29.7

U.S. Industrial

22.7

22.3

22.6

21.7

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.6

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

73.8

71.5

71.5

72.5

71.4

Total U.S. Demand

97.8

96.3

96.3

N/A

90.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

83

84

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

83

83

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

84

85

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 16

Week ended May 9

2024

2023

2022

Wind

13

10

11

10

11

Solar

8

8

5

4

3

Hydro

8

8

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

36

38

42

41

38

Coal

16

16

16

17

21

Nuclear

18

19

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.20

3.31

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.67

2.76

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.28

2.77

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.41

2.48

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.85

2.91

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

3.00

2.82

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.31

2.55

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.94

1.58

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.38

1.51

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

44.20

44.86

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

71.72

57.41

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

37.09

27.90

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

14.21

17.80

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

2.53

11.26

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Barbara Lewis and Nick Zieminski)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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