US natgas prices slide 2% to two-week low on big storage build, less demand

Reuters
15 May
UPDATE 1-US natgas prices slide 2% to two-week low on big storage build, less demand

US LNG export feedgas hit record high in April

US gas output hit record high in April

US gas storage about 3% over five-year normal

Adds EIA storage report, latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

May 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a two-week low on Thursday on a bigger-than-usual weekly storage build and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected.

Gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.3 cents, or 1.5%, to $3.439 per million British thermal units by 10:33 a.m. EDT (1433 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since April 30.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration $(EIA)$ said energy firms added 110 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended May 9.

That was in line with the 109-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 73 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average build of 83 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

Analysts said last week's build was much bigger than usual because mild weather kept both heating and cooling demand for gas lower than usual for this time of year.

Despite a heat wave coming to Texas this week, analysts said heating and cooling demand should remain low across much of the rest of the country in coming weeks, allowing utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than normal for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles were currently around 3% above the five-year (2020-2024) normal. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, gas output was on track to drop from a record 107.4 bcfd on April 18 to a preliminary 11-week low of 102.2 bcfd on Thursday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 30.

After hitting 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32.2 Celsius) on Tuesday and Wednesday, AccuWeather meteorologists forecast temperatures in Houston, the biggest city in Texas, would reach 95 F on Thursday, breaking the May 15 record high of 94 F set in 1978, and would keep hitting the 90s F every day from May 13-18. The normal high in the city at this time of year is 86 F.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will hold around 96.4 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.

The LNG feedgas decline so far this month was mostly due to reductions for maintenance at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant under construction and in operation in Texas, and a one-day outage at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas on May 6.

LNG gas flows to the Corpus Christi facility were on track to hold at a two-month low of 1.5 bcfd for a second day in a row on Thursday, down from 1.6 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 2.0 bcfd during the prior seven days, according to LSEG data.

Week ended May 9 Actual

Week ended May 2 Actual

Year ago May 9

Five-year average

May 9

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+110

+104

+73

+83

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,255

2,145

2,630

2,198

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+2.6%

+1.4%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.48

3.49

2.42

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.47

11.38

10.12

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.48

11.46

11.10

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

45

40

29

56

55

U.S. GFS CDDs

112

115

103

89

85

U.S. GFS TDDs

157

155

132

145

140

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

103.6

103.7

103.9

100.0

96.3

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.2

6.9

7.0

N/A

7.0

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

110.8

110.7

110.8

N/A

103.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.6

2.5

2.5

N/A

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

7.3

7.1

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

14.2

15.1

14.9

12.9

10.4

U.S. Commercial

5.9

5.1

5.2

5.1

5.7

U.S. Residential

6.5

5.0

5.1

4.9

6.6

U.S. Power Plant

31.5

31.9

32.0

33.6

29.7

U.S. Industrial

22.7

22.3

22.4

21.7

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.6

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

73.8

71.4

72.0

72.5

71.4

Total U.S. Demand

97.8

96.3

96.5

N/A

90.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

84

83

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

83

83

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

85

84

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 16

Week ended May 9

2024

2023

2022

Wind

12

10

11

10

11

Solar

8

8

5

4

3

Hydro

8

8

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

36

38

42

41

38

Coal

16

16

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

19

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.31

3.27

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.76

2.69

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.77

3.15

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.48

2.55

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.91

2.88

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.82

3.39

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.55

3.12

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.58

1.00

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.51

1.46

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

45.86

46.l8

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

57.41

47.64

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

27.90

23.60

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

17.80

12.00

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

11.26

6.37

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Susan Fenton)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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