US natgas prices edge up to 2-week high on decline in daily output

Reuters
Yesterday
US natgas prices edge up to 2-week high on decline in daily output

U.S. LNG export feedgas on track to hit record high in April

U.S. gas output on track to hit record high in April

U.S. gas storage about 1% below five-year average

By Scott DiSavino

April 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to two-week high on Monday as a bullish drop in daily output offset bearish forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected.

On its first day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.6 cents, or 0.5%, from where the June future settled on Monday to $3.359 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its highest close since April 11.

That put the front-month up about 5% from where the lower-priced May contract closed on Monday when it was still the front-month.

Analysts project the amount of gas in storage will rise above the five-year normal for this time of year over the next week or two. Gas stockpiles have remained below normal levels since mid January.

Inventories were currently about 1% below normal after utilities pulled a record 1.013 bcf of gas from storage in January to keep homes and businesses warm during extreme cold. Some analysts said mild weather and record output could allow energy firms to add record amounts of gas into storage in May, breaking the current all-time monthly injection high of 494 bcf in May 2015. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.4 billion cubic feet per day in April from a monthly record of 106.2 bcfd in March.

On a daily basis, gas output fell about 1.0 bcfd over the past two days to a preliminary two-month low of 104.9 bcfd on Tuesday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer through May 14.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 99.0 bcfd this week to 96.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants operating in the U.S. climbed from a monthly record of 15.8 bcfd in March to 16.0 bcfd so far in April on rising flows to Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana.

In LNG news, Australia's Woodside Energy WDS.AX made a final investment decision to build the first 2.2-bcfd phase of its proposed 3.6-bcfd Louisiana LNG export plant in Louisiana. The company expects to produce first LNG from the roughly $17.5 billion project in 2029.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a nine-month low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and near an 11-month low of around $11 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Apr 25 Forecast

Week ended Apr 18 Actual

Year ago Apr 25

Five-year average

Apr 25

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+89

88

+64

+58

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,023

1,934

2,476

2,036

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-0.6%

-2.2%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.39

3.34

1.79

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.54

10.66

9.11

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.28

11.27

10.06

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

63

68

62

96

94

U.S. GFS CDDs

67

63

72

60

55

U.S. GFS TDDs

130

131

134

156

149

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

107.0

105.5

105.5

99.8

97.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.3

7.4

7.4

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

114.3

112.9

112.9

N/A

105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.5

2.5

2.5

N/A

3.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.9

7.3

7.1

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

15.5

15.7

16.1

12.4

11.8

U.S. Commercial

6.3

6.0

5.8

5.7

11.8

U.S. Residential

7.4

6.9

6.5

6.0

18.3

U.S. Power Plant

30.2

30.7

29.0

33.3

27.5

U.S. Industrial

22.4

22.3

22.4

21.8

23.8

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.0

3.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

73.6

73.3

70.9

74.2

90.1

Total U.S. Demand

98.6

99.0

96.6

N/A

110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

86

86

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

86

86

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

87

87

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 2

Week ended Apr 25

2024

2023

2022

Wind

18

13

11

10

11

Solar

8

8

5

4

3

Hydro

7

8

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

34

36

42

41

38

Coal

14

15

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

19

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.96

2.71

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.22

2.17

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.50

2.44

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.31

2.08

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.56

2.36

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.52

1.90

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.68

2.73

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.52

0.96

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.56

1.35

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

36.50

35.00

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

48.22

46.63

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

26.60

22.48

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

26.00

25.66

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

9.82

9.82

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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