MW Intel's earnings outlook could be 'useless.' Here's what matters instead.

By Therese Poletti

New CEO Lip-Bu Tan's first earnings call with Wall Street is later this week. Analysts see next week's 'Foundry Day' as a bigger possible catalyst.

Intel Corp.'s earnings later this week are expected to show how the company is in the eye of the storm of the Trump administration's trade war with China - and with so much uncertainty around tariff policy, the company's outlook is not likely to be very useful to investors.

"Numbers really do not matter," said Mizuho Securities tech- and media-sector specialist Jordan Klein in a note to clients. "PC demand [is] at high risk from tariffs."

While Trump has exempted personal computers from the 145% "reciprocal" tariffs on China, the president's team plans to announce separate tariff policies for various consumer-electronics categories. The specifics of those plans are "totally unknown," Klein wrote. "Hence, Intel's guide right now feels useless."

Analyst C.J. Muse of Cantor Fitzgerald thinks that Intel $(INTC)$, with its new chief executive Lip-Bu Tan, will come up short with its outlook for the second quarter, and decline to provide guidance for the full year.

Read also: Intel CEO isn't wasting any time trying to enact a turnaround.

In Muse's view, Tan will take the opportunity to "reset numbers given recent volatility and macro headwinds."

Intel is expected to report first-quarter earnings on Thursday and is forecast to report a GAAP earnings-per-share loss of 24 cents a share, on revenue of $12.3 billion, according to FactSet.

Both Klein and Muse believe investors will probably find more insight in another meeting Tan will host later in the month, on April 29, to discuss the company's foundry business, which it has been trying to grow by selling its manufacturing services to other chip makers, including its rivals.

Muse is optimistic about the potential for Intel to still form some sort of joint venture for its manufacturing business with its customers - though not with rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. $(TSM)$ (TW:2330), as had been rumored a couple of months ago. Muse, along with many other analysts on Wall Street, believes that TSMC would not have any interest in running Intel's chip-fabrication facilities.

See more: It looks like Intel may have to go it alone. Can Lip-Bu Tan fix the company solo?

"Given the clear desire by both the White House and Commerce Department to bring together other companies to help Intel as it struggles with its foundry strategy, we believe reports around a JV are likely credible, though believe it will likely be a consortium of Intel customers such as Nvidia $(NVDA)$, AMD $(AMD)$, Qualcomm $(QCOM)$ or Apple $(AAPL)$," Muse said, adding that he sees Intel's "Foundry Day" on April 29 as a potential catalyst for the stock.

Those comments come after TSMC's CEO indicated on an earnings call last week that his company wasn't in talks about any joint ventures or technology transfers.

Muse lowered his price target on Intel's stock to $26 from $29, adding that the company is in the midst of a transition period as it solidifies its strategic path forward.

There's "a lot of wood to chop in the interim," and "given the tough slog ahead," Muse reiterated his neutral rating on the stock.

Intel's stock was down 2.8% in midday trading Monday.

-Therese Poletti

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April 21, 2025 13:23 ET (17:23 GMT)

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