MW Warehouse-club foot traffic jumped nearly 10% in the week before 'liberation day' tariffs. But signals are mixed.

By Bill Peters

'Is the projected strength in retail spending in March due to tariff-related front loading? "Maybe," ' BofA analysts said

Visits to warehouse-club retail chains jumped between March 24 and March 30 - just days before President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs - in a possible sign that shoppers were racing to stock up before those import taxes took hold, according to new data from Placer.ai.

Data from the firm, which analyzes retail foot traffic, showed that visits to those stores - which include such discount giants as Costco Wholesale Corp., Walmart's Sam's Club and BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings $(BJ)$ - were up 9.7% on a year-over-year basis during the period.

Those gains were among the strongest seen this year, and the firm said more shoppers could gravitate toward bulk purchases and low prices, as they brace for potential tariff-induced price increases. Visits to grocery stores and superstores fell that week.

In a report on Friday, R.J. Hottovy, the firm's head of analytical research, said "our visitation data suggests that some consumers acted early to avoid potential price increases tied to tariff implementation."

"While visit trends for the week of March 24-30, 2025, were also influenced by the timing of Easter in 2024 (which fell on March 31), Placer.ai data indicates a possible pull forward in demand during the weeks leading up to the expected implementation of the latest tariffs - particularly at 'stock up' retailers like warehouse clubs," he added.

After announcing a wave of steep "reciprocal" tariffs last week that forced a big market selloff, Trump this week announced a 90-day pause and, he said, a "substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff" of 10% on most countries during that time. China was not spared, and since then the world's two top economies have raised tariffs on each other to more than 100%.

Analysts have said the biggest mass retailers - like Walmart Inc. $(WMT)$, Costco $(COST)$ and Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$ - stand to gain in the current economic backdrop, given their size, leverage with suppliers, and ability to keep prices lower. Walmart on Wednesday said it expected to pick up a bigger slice of the market.

Data from BofA released on Friday showed that total credit- and debit-card spending rose 1.1% in March from the year-earlier month. Tax refunds could have helped spending during the month, the bank said. But there were mixed signals on whether consumers were trying to get ahead of the tariffs.

"Is the projected strength in retail spending in March due to tariff-related front loading? 'Maybe,' " BofA analysts said. "Some categories that one would expect to benefit from front loading, such as clothing and home improvement, saw large gains."

Other data on automobile sales "showed an 11% increase [from the prior month]," they said. "However, other tariff-related categories, such as furniture, general merchandise and department stores, were tepid."

Analysts there said there was "no sign yet of negative wealth effects from [the] stock selloff" among higher-income consumers. The U.S. equity-market benchmark S&P 500 SPX is down just less than 9% in 2025.

-Bill Peters

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April 11, 2025 14:04 ET (18:04 GMT)

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