The National Australia Bank's (NAB) economic analysts now expect more aggressive easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) due to the escalation of global trade tensions, according to a Thursday statement.
NAB Economics sees the RBA delivering a 50-basis-point cut in May, followed by 25 basis points at each meeting in July, August, November, and 2026. This will take the official cash rate to 2.6% by February 2026 from the current 4.1%.
"Our call for a 50bps easing in May reflects the fact that with the real cash rate of 1.3% and policy currently restrictive, the RBA needs to play catch up," said NAB Economic Chief Economist Sally Auld.
"Once the cash rate reaches a level more consistent with a neutral policy setting, we then expect the RBA to pause for a few months before taking the cash rate into modestly accommodative territory," Auld added.
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