Ford Stock Soars. It Still Has a Tariff Problem. -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones
10 Apr

By Al Root

Ford Motor stock was soaring on Wednesday after President Donald Trump paused his so-called reciprocal tariffs on countries other than China for 90 days.

The auto maker isn't out of the tariff woods yet, though.

"I have authorized a 90-day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff rate during this period or 10%, also effect immediately," the president wrote on Truth Social. He increased tariffs on China after it raised tariffs on U.S. imports as a response to Trump's levies.

Ford stock was down early but soared off its lows to $9.38 a share, up 7.8%, in midday trading. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 7.7% and 6.6%, respectively.

Ford shares fell earlier after an analyst said to sell them. Bernstein's Daniel Roeska downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold and lowered his price target to $7 from $9.40.

"It is time to confront some hard truths, once more: vehicle tariffs have commenced, and parts tariffs are likely to follow within a month," Roseka wrote. "We extend our company analysis to Ford and find significant downside not priced by the market yet."

The Trump news doesn't help Ford as much as other auto makers. The auto industry is facing 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and, eventually, imported auto parts. Those appear to remain in place. The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment about the status of automotive tariffs.

The downgrade follows Roeska's Monday downgrade of General Motors stock to Sell from Hold, citing higher costs and a weakening consumer. GM just got "punched by the tariff man," Roeska wrote, adding that he wouldn't be surprised to see GM pause stock buybacks to conserve cash.

Ford is in the same boat, and Roeska believes Ford's dividend could come under pressure. He cut his 2025 earnings-per-share estimate to 86 cents from $1.46.

GM imports about 45% of the cars it sells in the U.S., mainly from the U.S. and Canada, according to Bloomberg. Ford imports only about 20%. Still, tariffs on imported parts will raise costs, which "significantly affects Ford," Roeska wrote.

There doesn't appear to be anywhere to hide from automotive tariffs. Even auto makers in relatively better positions will see big impacts, according to Wall Street.

Recent trading might mitigate the impact of the downgrade. Coming into Wednesday trading, Ford stock was down 14% since Trump's April 2 tariff announcements. GM and Stellantis shares were down 11% and 24%, respectively. Since the Nov. 5 presidential election, Ford, GM, and Stellantis shares are down 18%, 21%, and 38%, respectively.

With the Ford downgrade, 16% of analysts covering Ford stock have Sell ratings. That is about twice as high as the average Sell-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500.

About 24% of analysts covering Ford stock have Buy ratings. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%.

The average analyst price target for Ford stock is about $9.70, down from almost $12 since the election.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

 

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April 09, 2025 14:27 ET (18:27 GMT)

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