Upward pressure is expected on North Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and supply-demand fundamentals suggest tightness will emerge in the April to September period as European and Asian buyers compete for limited supply, according to a report from ANZ Research on Thursday.
Increasingly tight supplies resulted in a drop in Europe's overall gas storage levels, with the expiration of the gas transit deal between Russia and Ukraine cutting more than 5% of Europe's gas supply.
Global LNG demand is expected to increase by 6% year-over-year in the April to September period. Geopolitical factors will remain decisive in LNG markets.
Europe's storage levels are likely to fall below 30% by April, significantly below historical levels. This will make it very hard for Europe to meet its mandated storage target of 90% by Nov. 1. European Union member states will be increasingly reliant on the LNG market.
Recent US sanctions on Russian LNG have also constrained supply, and US tariffs on Chinese goods risk initiating retaliatory levies or sanctions.
ANZ Research expects tariffs to override fundamentals in energy markets. It also expects the short-term impact of the tariffs will be a rise in premiums for commodities, as the US adjusts to dislocations in physical markets. Given relatively low global inventories, tariffs are expected to put upward pressure on spot prices.
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