Jan 15 (Reuters) - Should the Bank of Japan raise the interest rate next week, it will not shock the yen as it did last year, because of the radically different way traders have positioned themselves ahead of the event.

Instead of betting heavily on the yen dropping, a wager against the yen has only emerged this month and it is negligible. With the yen rallying slightly ahead of the Jan. 24 policy meeting, there is a strong chance that traders are gambling on the yen rising by the time of the event.

Without a big yen short, an interest rate hike that leaves it one of the lowest globally isn't going to result in a big yen rise.

It is far more likely that the yen's downtrend, which is fuelled by super easy monetary policy, continues, and the main influence of policy at the moment is bond purchases, not Japan's interest rate.

Where the announcement of a reduction in the bond purchases had a big impact in July, no further changes are anticipated, with plans to buy bonds next year offseting the expected rise in Japan's interest rate from 0.25% to 0.75% this year.

With intervention less effective without yen shorts to counter, a surprise for traders may come if - and more likely when - USD/JPY exceeds last year's high at 161.96.

Unlike July when USD/JPY was overbought the trend is less stretched with the 161.62 peak of the 20-week Bollinger Bands allowing for a rise within a whisker of 2024's peak. The chance of a topside surprise may be greater than perceived.

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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))