BUZZ-FX options wrap - Poised for more USD gains and volatility risk

Reuters
10 Jan

Jan 10 (Reuters) - U.S. jobs data capped off a turbulent week marked by sharp rebounds in implied volatility curves for some of the key currency pairs and a dramatic surge to new 2-year highs for GBP related implied volatility.

The FX volatility risk premium for U.S. jobs data was high in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, which have seen most of the recent action. The subsequent stronger than forecast U.S. jobs data fuelled a fresh bout of USD demand as 2025 Fed rate cut pricing fell from 40bps to 30bps.

The USD has eased marginally from its initial post data peaks, leaving EUR/USD 1.0200 barrier options intact for now. Huge 1.0300 strikes have dominated near-term expiries and there are a further 6.5-billion euros due on Monday which can add resistance to any spot recovery.

GBP/USD has recovered from another new 2025 low at 1.2194, but continues to see demand for sub 1.2000 strike GBP puts this week.

Typical post-data/pre-weekend implied volatility setbacks are proving limited with plenty of FX risk events ahead.

Next week sees U.S. CPI and retail sales data, while Donald Trump's Treasury Secretary nominee, Scott Bessent, is set to appear before a U.S. Senate committee on Thursday. He could mention trade tariffs, which have been the leading source of USD strength and FX volatility since the U.S. election.

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(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((Richard.Pace@Thomsonreuters.com))

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