Dec 6 (Reuters) - Oil is a key element for trading strategies, with its future direction helping to determine the path of interest rates, as well as the currencies of nations that either depend on imports or rely on the income generated by their exports.

The role that oil plays has become more important because its price has sunk to a crucial point. Should Brent sustain a move below $70/bbl, it may be game changing, ushering in a period where interest rates fall further than is currently expected.

The big level is the 100-MMA, which is sitting at the base of the rough $70-100/bbl range that has contained oil for several years. Judging by very large moves whenever this level has given way in the past decade, a break next year could force big changes in financial markets

A sharp drop that undermines the dollar, the currency of one of the largest producers, and also spurs the Federal Reserve to lower the U.S. interest rate faster and further, would turn the tables on traders who have bet a substantial amount of cash on the dollar rising.

The results of lower oil could lead to a disorderly reaction in currency markets that drives volatility higher, and swiftly relieves pressure on a number of currencies. The currencies of China, India, and Turkey which import a lot of oil have all slumped to record lows versus the dollar this year, as did the trade-weighted value of Japan's yen.

Should oil prices continue to be supported by producers and the incoming U.S. president's plans to refill the strategic petroleum reserve, the dollar could add to its already significant gains, but probably in a more orderly fashion.

Once the SPR is full, and should producers ever dare to hike output, oil may well break lower and perhaps stay down.

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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))