National Bank Financial on Thursday maintained its outperform rating on the shares of North American Construction Group (NOA.TO, NOA) with a C$45.00 price target after an oil-sands company extended and amended a $500 million contract, while releasing fourth-quarter and 2025 guidance.

"This morning, NOA announced full year 2025E guidance on the back of a major oil sands customer contract extension for mine services until 2029. The contract has a minimum committed spend of $500 mln spread over the 4 -year term which is primarily related to equipment rentals and some earthwork scope. The pricing is determined by unit rate (now estimated at 31% of the $3.6 bln backlog) in which payments are tied to measurable units of work (e.g., cubic meters of earth moved). If the scope changes, the contract can adjust naturally by multiplying the new quantity by the agreed unit rate. This allows NACG to handle projects where work volumes are uncertain or likely to increase instead of fixed rate where there is more risk of cost overruns. The company also provided guidance for 2025E pro-forma the contract win - with $430 mln EBITDA projected at the midpoint (+4% higher than NBF; and in line with the Street). More granular guidance for Q4/24E and 2025E vs. NBF and consensus is presented," analyst Maxim Sytchev wrote.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

Price: 29.95, Change: +1.48, Percent Change: +5.20