Dec 4 (Reuters) - The euro usually rises against the yen in December and there are signs on the daily chart that this historical pattern could repeat itself this month.

EUR/JPY's seasonal performance since 2000 shows it has risen in 18 of the last 24 years, or 75% of the time. But seasonality patterns should not be considered in isolation; when combined with other factors they can become a useful tool.

EUR/JPY was recently trading below the lower 30-day bollinger-band, in a sign the cross is oversold, it has since rebounded back above. The recovery from Tuesday's 156.19 yen $(EBS)$ low looks set to continue, despite the continued 14-day negative momentum reading.

There is scope for a break above the 158.66 Fibo, a 23.6% retrace of the 166.65-156.19 (October to December) EBS drop. A close above that would increase the odds of a positive December.

French lawmakers are all but certain to oust the government with a no-confidence motion on Wednesday, plunging the euro zone's second-biggest economic power deeper into political turmoil. Uncertainty after the confidence motion remains a big risk to EUR/JPY's recovery.

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(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((martin.miller@thomsonreuters.com))