Nov 6 (Reuters) - In the two months leading up to the U.S. election, traders flipped from a net $17 billion dollar short to an $18 billion wager that the vote would boost the U.S. currency, almost certainly based on the idea that Donald Trump would win as now seems likely.
The logical reaction of traders who bet on this outcome is to take their profits, which will support the currencies they have gambled against like the euro, yen, Swiss Franc, Canadian and New Zealand dollars and Brazil's real.
The larger the bet, the bigger the changes in the wake of the election, and in this respect Canada's dollar may receive a great deal of support as a massive $12 billion gamble is adjusted.
Speculators are also expecting 8 of the 9 Asian currencies in Reuters poll to drop, and although none of the bets against any of these currencies is large, all will lend the currencies involved some support.
In contrast traders are short dollars versus pound, Australian dollar and Mexico's peso and support for the U.S. currency may endure as these bets are extinguished.
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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))
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