Gold Declines Amid Choppy Trading While Crude Oil Extends Gains

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Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis: On Tuesday, February 17, during early Asian trading hours, spot gold edged lower, currently trading around $4,933 per ounce, down approximately 0.5% for the day. With U.S. markets closed on Monday for Presidents' Day and Chinese markets shut for the Lunar New Year holiday, gold prices fell nearly 1% amid thin liquidity. In overnight trading, gold briefly climbed to a daily high near $5,032 per ounce but failed to attract sufficient follow-through buying or sustain momentum. It is noted that Chinese markets are closed for a week due to the Spring Festival holiday, which has somewhat dampened market liquidity and buying interest. Since hitting overnight highs, the precious metal has faced steady, albeit moderate, selling pressure. Analysts widely expected limited price swings on Monday, as U.S. markets were closed for a holiday, and the Toronto Stock Exchange was also shut for Family Day in Ontario, Canada, significantly reducing market participation.

Gold Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, gold has maintained a high-level consolidation after encountering resistance in last week's rebound. Key support can be observed near the intraday low of $4,965, which aligns with the 5-week moving average. Last week, gold prices retreated after an upward push but found support near this level. On the upside, resistance is seen near $5,046, where prices faced repeated selling pressure last Friday, followed by the psychological $5,100 level, which has acted as a key barrier over the past two weeks. The 5-day moving average shows a slight bearish turn, while the MACD indicator forms a bearish crossover. The KDJ indicator's bullish momentum is slowing, and the RSI is trending lower, suggesting near-term headwinds for gold. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June have increased slightly following softer-than-expected U.S. CPI data, offsetting the impact of strong non-farm payroll figures and providing short-term support for gold. Trading strategy should adopt a range-bound approach, with support near $4,875 and resistance near $4,987, followed by $5,000. Overall, for today’s session, a strategy of selling on rallies with buying on dips is recommended. Key resistance lies between $4,980 and $5,030, while support is expected between $4,890 and $4,840.

Latest Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis: Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis: During Tuesday’s Asian session, international crude oil futures moved higher as risk sentiment improved. WTI crude traded at $63.73 per barrel, up $0.92 or 1.46%, after hitting a session high of $63.87 and a low of $62.49. The rally was driven by geopolitical risks and a weaker U.S. dollar. Ongoing tensions in Red Sea shipping security, coupled with rising geopolitical risks linked to Iran, have raised concerns over potential supply disruptions. The Middle East accounts for roughly one-third of global crude output, and any escalation could materially impact supply. Year-to-date, oil prices have gained about 10%, largely supported by geopolitical premiums. However, as immediate military confrontation risks have eased somewhat recently, market sentiment has cooled.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis: With global production expected to rise gradually in the first half of the year, Brent crude may face pressure to retreat toward the low $60s. Overall, oil prices are caught between opposing forces: geopolitical risks and a softer dollar provide support, while high inventory levels and potential output increases cap gains. In the near term, prices are likely to remain range-bound, with markets closely monitoring inventory data, OPEC+ meetings, and developments in the Middle East. On the daily chart, WTI continues to trade within a $62.00–$64.50 range. Although prices have reclaimed the 20-day moving average, the 50-day moving average continues to act as resistance, indicating that bullish momentum remains limited. Near-term resistance is seen around $63.80; a sustained break above $64.50 could open the way toward $65.50. Support levels to watch are $62.50 and the $62.00 mark; a break below may lead to a retest of the $61.00 zone. The overall technical structure suggests a consolidation phase rather than a directional breakout. For today, a strategy of buying on dips with selling on rallies is advised. Resistance is expected between $65.0 and $66.0, while support lies between $62.0 and $61.0.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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