On Monday, March 23, the three major A-share indices all declined by over 3%, with the Shanghai Composite Index retreating to the 3800-point level. The Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876), which provides comprehensive exposure to industry leaders in gold, rare earths, copper, aluminum, and other nonferrous metals, followed the broader market downward. Its intraday price closed down 4.72%, marking its ninth consecutive negative daily close. The ETF recorded a full-day turnover of 138 million yuan, a 24% increase from the previous session, indicating active trading.
Notably, the intraday price of the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) has fallen back to levels seen last December, potentially offering investors optimistic about the sector's prospects an opportunity to accumulate positions on dips.
Among its constituent stocks, lithium mining概念 stocks experienced volatile intraday rebounds. Lithium industry leader Yongxing Special Materials rose over 3%, while Shenzhen Chengxin Lithium Group and Ganfeng Lithium Group closed in positive territory against the market trend. Additionally, lead-zinc leader Guocheng Mining led gains, rising over 6%. However, all other constituent stocks declined, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining falling by the daily limit, and Shandong Gold Mining and Hunan Silver dropping over 9%, ranking among the top decliners and weighing on the index performance.
How should one view the future performance of the nonferrous metals sector? It can be analyzed from macroeconomic, industrial, and individual stock perspectives:
1. Macroeconomic Perspective: Since the outbreak of geopolitical events in the Middle East, surging oil prices have intensified inflation risks and reduced the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. This presents a headwind for non-interest-bearing gold. As of this report, spot gold fell below $4,200, and its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, dropped further below 30. Some traders interpret this as an oversold signal and believe gold could rebound in the short term due to technical factors. CITIC Securities believes that after the Middle East geopolitical events conclude, gold has the potential to reach new highs.* 2. Industrial Perspective: Lithium mining概念 stocks saw a volatile intraday rebound. Production schedules across the lithium battery industry chain fully recovered in March. Coupled with post-holiday implementation of "replace old with new" policies and new vehicle launches, full-year demand for lithium batteries appears positive. Oriental Securities believes the supply-demand dynamics of the lithium industry have significantly improved. It forecasts a net increase of 448,000 tonnes LCE in global lithium supply by 2026. However, capital expenditures from core lithium producers have entered a contraction phase (with growth rates of only 17.1% in 2024-2025). Combined with demand surges from solar, wind, energy storage, and AI infrastructure, the price center for lithium is expected to trend upwards. 3. Individual Stock Perspective: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited's wholly-owned subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, plans to acquire a 25.85% stake in Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (post-capital increase) for 18.258 billion yuan through a combination of agreement transfer and private placement subscription. Lin Hongfu, President of Zijin Mining, stated that the acquisition aligns with the company's strategy of prioritizing resources. He also noted that Chifeng Gold's overseas mines possess good exploration prospects and potential for capacity expansion. Furthermore, he emphasized that, as fundamental issues like global governance秩序 and excessive fiat currency issuance remain unresolved, the medium to long-term logic supporting sustained high or further rising gold prices remains unchanged.
From a segmented perspective, Huatai Securities suggests that while short-term sentiment-driven selling dominates the nonferrous metals sector, the medium-term fundamentals remain intact. For gold, historical patterns show rapid rebounds often follow the end of geopolitical conflicts, and continued central bank purchases provide a floor for prices. For industrial metals, copper faces tight mine supply and domestic inventory drawdowns, while aluminum supply risks in the Middle East are not fully priced in, indicating underlying fundamental support remains. For minor metals, varieties like rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, and cobalt are catalyzed by geopolitical tensions, with expectations for strategic reserves and military inventory replenishment strengthening. Their highly concentrated supply within China, difficult to replace externally, enhances their resilience and medium-term allocation value. Overall, the sector's repair potential following the broad sell-off warrants active attention.*
[Nonfermetals Sector Momentum Builds, "Super Cycle" Appears Inevitable] The HuaBao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its feeder fund (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track a benchmark index that comprehensively covers industries including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, spanning different cycles like precious metals (hedge), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery). This full-category coverage allows for better capture of the sector's beta movements. Additionally, this ETF is a margin trading security, making it an efficient tool for one-click allocation to the nonferrous metals sector.
As of the end of February, the HuaBao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) had a latest size of 2.427 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover exceeding 100 million yuan over the past month. Among the three ETF products tracking the same benchmark index in the market, it leads in both size and liquidity.
*Institutional views referenced from: ① CITIC Securities report "Metal Sector Gold Hot Topic Review - Gold Price and Gold Sector Performance After Past Middle East Conflicts" dated March 18; ② Huatai Securities report "Nonferrous Metals: 'Constraints' and 'Disturbances' Under Middle East Geopolitical Impact" dated March 11.
Reminder: Recent market volatility may be significant. Short-term gains or losses do not indicate future performance. Investors must invest rationally based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, paying close attention to position and risk management.
ETF Fee Note: When subscribing for or redeeming fund shares, subscription/redemption agents may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. Intraday trading fees are subject to the rates charged by the securities firm. ETFs do not charge a sales service fee.
Feeder Fund Fee Note: For the HuaBao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class A), the subscription fee rate is 1,000 RMB per subscription for amounts of 2 million RMB or more, 0.6% for amounts between 1 million RMB (inclusive) and 2 million RMB, and 1% for amounts below 1 million RMB. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days, and 0% for holding periods of 7 days or more. No sales service fee is charged. For the HuaBao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class C), no subscription fee is charged. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days, and 0% for holding periods of 7 days or more. A sales service fee of 0.3% is charged.
Risk Disclosure: The HuaBao Nonferrous Metals ETF passively tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index. The base date for this index is December 31, 2013, and it was published on July 13, 2015. The index's performance over the past five complete years is as follows: 2021, +35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, +2.96%; 2025, +91.67%. The index's constituent stocks are adjusted according to its compilation rules. Its past historical performance does not indicate future index performance. The mention of index constituents herein is for illustrative purposes only; descriptions of individual stocks are not investment advice of any form and do not represent the holdings or trading动向 of any fund managed by the management company. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk level as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for Balanced (C3) and higher risk profile investors. Suitability matching opinions are subject to the sales institution. Any information appearing in this article is for reference only. Investors are solely responsible for any independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts herein do not constitute investment advice to readers and shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses resulting from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks. The past performance of a fund does not indicate its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of this fund's performance. Invest in funds with caution.
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