A recent report from Jones Lang LaSalle, titled "Macau Property Market Review and 2026 Outlook," indicates that the Macau property market experienced a broad decline in asset prices during 2025, influenced by weak demand and macroeconomic uncertainties. The firm anticipates the residential market will stabilize in 2026, while the commercial property sector is expected to continue facing challenges.
A senior director from the firm's Macau valuation and advisory department noted that robust growth in gaming revenue and tourist arrivals reflects a sustained recovery in the tourism and gaming industries. However, investment sentiment in commercial properties remains weak due to tighter bank lending for such assets. Although some investors have acquired high-quality properties in core tourist zones, their required investment returns have doubled compared to the past. Furthermore, the complete exit of all satellite casinos by the end of 2025 will continue to pose challenges for Macau's real estate market, with overall commercial property prices still in a phase of finding a bottom.
Data from the Macau Financial Services Bureau showed a total of 2,775 residential transaction deals in 2025, a decrease of 9.2% year-on-year. In contrast, transactions for pre-sale units increased by 44.8% to 333 units. According to the Jones Lang LaSalle Macau Residential Index, the rental value for high-end homes rose by 1.1% year-on-year in 2025, while rental values for small and medium-sized homes fell by 10.3%. Asset performance continued to decline, with high-end residential property prices dropping 14.7% and prices for small to medium-sized homes falling 16.5% year-on-year. The corresponding investment yields were 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively.
The director pointed out that significant price adjustments in the residential market occurred in 2025 as developers actively reduced prices to sell primary residential properties. Measures announced by the Macau government in November 2025, including an exemption on stamp duty for the first MOP 6 million of a property's value and relaxed mortgage loan-to-value ratios, coupled with recent interest rate cuts by banks, are expected to ease mortgage burdens. These policies are projected to have a stabilizing effect on the residential market in the short term, leading to more stable prices for both small-to-medium and high-end homes this year.
However, over the long term, the medium-term development of Macau's residential market faces constraints on rigid demand. Both public and private housing projects in the pipeline encounter challenges in absorption. Additionally, a lack of significant developments in population policies and new large-scale infrastructure projects introduces uncertainty into the market's long-term trajectory.
According to the Jones Lang LaSalle Macau Office Index, overall office rental values declined by 3.4% year-on-year in 2025, with Grade A office rents falling by 0.9%. Statistics from the Macau government indicated that the office vacancy rate climbed to approximately 15.3% by the third quarter of 2025. The report stated that cost control has become a priority for most companies, with multinational corporations focusing on space consolidation. As the decline in office rents slows, many tenants are considering early renewal with longer lease terms to reduce operating costs and lock in favorable long-term rates. The overall Macau office market remains in a downward cycle, facing continued challenges ahead.
The Jones Lang LaSalle Macau Retail Index showed that retail rental values decreased by 0.9% year-on-year in 2025, while capital values fell by 8.9%. The yield for prime street-front shops was approximately 2.7%. The delinquency ratio for commercial property loans was around 5.4% at the end of 2025, with an increasing volume of non-performing asset sales in the market offering yields above 4%.
The report indicated that after years of deep adjustment, capital values for core street-front shops have become more attractive, bolstered by tourist numbers returning to high levels and improving rental yields in tourist areas. This has prompted some local investors to re-enter the market for prime retail properties. In contrast, retail performance in residential neighborhoods remains weak. The high delinquency ratio for commercial property loans is expected to continue dampening market sentiment, suggesting that price adjustments for most retail properties will persist.