CITIC Securities has released a research report indicating that a potential nationwide strike at Samsung Electronics could heighten the risk of production halts, potentially exacerbating tight supply conditions in the global memory chip market. Amid high market demand for memory, the firm is optimistic about the opportunity for major domestic memory manufacturers to increase their market share. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, capacity expansion and technological upgrades by domestic memory producers are expected to accelerate, with core suppliers of materials and components likely to benefit significantly.
Key points from CITIC Securities are as follows:
A potential general strike at Samsung Electronics, possibly occurring in May, raises the risk of production stoppages that could intensify the global memory chip supply shortage. According to a Yonhap News Agency report from March 18, members of the Samsung Electronics labor union approved a collective action proposal with a 93.1% majority. The union plans to hold a rally on April 23, followed by an 18-day nationwide strike from May 21 to June 7. If the strike proceeds as planned, it could disrupt chip production lines at Samsung's Pyeongtaek semiconductor campus in South Korea, impacting the output of DRAM, NAND flash, and HBM chips. Restarting production after a shutdown involves time-consuming and labor-intensive processes, including retesting and reinitializing the production chain.
Since 2026, strong demand driven by artificial intelligence has kept memory chip supply and demand tight, with prices continuing to rise. According to Omdia data, Samsung Electronics held a 36.6% share of the global DRAM market in Q4 2025, while TrendForce data shows the company accounted for 28% of the global NAND market in the same period. A potential production halt at Samsung could further strain global memory chip supply.
Domestic memory manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion and technological upgrades, positioning them to steadily increase their market share. High memory prices and strong demand are expected to persist throughout 2026, and a potential strike at Samsung presents an opportunity for domestic producers to expand their market presence. In terms of capacity and volume, Omdia data indicates that ChangXin Memory Technologies has become the world's fourth-largest DRAM supplier by shipments, with a global market share of 3.97% based on Q2 2025 DRAM sales. In recent years, domestic memory makers have made rapid progress in both capacity construction and technological breakthroughs. Local 3D NAND products achieved mass production of 232-layer flash memory in 2025 and continue to advance toward higher stack layers. Domestic DRAM products have also reached mass production for mainstream fourth- and fifth-generation technologies, including DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4X, and LPDDR5/5X. Capacity expansion and technological iteration by domestic memory manufacturers are expected to accelerate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, supporting continued growth in global market share.
The report expresses optimism about rising demand for semiconductor materials and highlights the importance of core suppliers to major domestic memory manufacturers. Against a backdrop of global memory shortages, rising product prices and profitability, relatively low global market share for domestic firms, and strong policy support for the domestic industry, the increased demand driven by capacity expansion at major memory producers is viewed favorably. Core suppliers of materials and components are expected to see significant growth potential. From a technological perspective, the trend toward 3D memory devices will substantially increase the usage of semiconductor materials related to wafer manufacturing processes. Key processes such as thin-film deposition, CMP, etching, and electroplating are poised to benefit, with material consumption expected to receive an additional boost from advances in manufacturing processes and technological upgrades. The report anticipates that domestic memory manufacturers will become important drivers of demand for semiconductor consumables and emphasizes the strategic value of core suppliers in the industrial chain.
Risk factors include potential unexpected changes in Samsung's strike actions, slower-than-expected capacity expansion by domestic manufacturers, a downturn in industry demand, delays in import substitution efforts, heightened overseas restrictions on China's semiconductor industry, and slower-than-anticipated development and scaling of new products by companies.