Key Report Highlights:
Market Performance During the week of August 11-15, 2025, the commerce & retail, social services, and beauty & personal care sectors recorded gains of +0.98%, +0.40%, and +0.07% respectively, ranking 18th, 20th, and 22nd among 31 primary industries. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose +1.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index climbed +4.55%, and the CSI 300 gained +2.37%.
Among subsectors, hotels & restaurants, general retail, and specialty chains led gains this week with increases of +2.06%, +1.55%, and +0.95% respectively. Jewelry and tourism attractions posted the largest declines at -1.17% and -0.54% respectively.
Key Industry Events and News This Week
On August 12, the Ministry of Finance, together with the Ministry of Commerce, People's Bank of China, National Financial Regulatory Administration, and other relevant departments, released the "Personal Consumer Loan Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy Implementation Plan." The subsidy rate is set at 1 percentage point, with a maximum not exceeding 50% of the loan contract interest rate. The policy implementation period is one year.
From January to July 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 28.42 trillion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year. July retail sales totaled 3.88 trillion yuan, growing 3.7% year-on-year, below the Wind consensus expectation of 4.87%. By consumption type, goods retail reached 25.23 trillion yuan from January to July 2025, up 4.9% year-on-year, while food & beverage revenue totaled 3.2 trillion yuan, up 3.8%. In July, goods retail grew 4% year-on-year, and food & beverage revenue increased 1.1%.
(1) Beauty & Personal Care: MAO GEPING expects H1 2025 revenue to grow 30.4%-31.9% year-on-year, with net profit increasing 35.0%-37.0% year-on-year. Shanghai Shangmei Cosmetics collaborated with celebrity makeup artist Chun Nan to launch the makeup artist cosmetics brand NANbeauty at a brand launch event. Four products from Unifon's Frame Domain Intensive Repair series officially entered 80 core Sephora stores. Proya announced Song Jia as global skincare spokesperson. Kao Group's H1 2025 net sales increased slightly by 2.67% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to parent company growing 14.32%. SoYoung's Q2 aesthetic medicine chain business revenue reached 144 million yuan, up 426% year-on-year, becoming the group's top revenue contributor. Aimeike issued an announcement regarding a major arbitration involving its subsidiary REGEN, with the case amount temporarily calculated at 1.6 billion yuan. Baiya's H1 2025 revenue reached 1.764 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to parent company at 188 million yuan, up 4.6%.
(2) Travel Chain: In the 32nd week of 2025 (August 4-10), national civil aviation executed nearly 120,000 passenger flights, with daily average flights of 17,195. This represents a 1.4% increase week-on-week, 1.8% increase compared to 2024, and 18.8% increase compared to 2019.
(3) IP Derivatives: Shanghai Zhenyouqu Culture Technology Co., Ltd., parent company of Flashsoul, completed hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A funding. China Literature's IP derivatives business GMV reached 480 million yuan in H1 2025, approaching last year's full-year level. Pop Mart's popular IP characters LABUBU and ZIMOMO will collaborate with Uniqlo on clothing collections.
(4) Retail: Lao Pu Gold will implement product price adjustments on August 25, 2025. Yiwu China Commodity City's H1 2025 operating revenue increased 13.99% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to parent company up 16.78%.
Investment Recommendations We maintain a "Recommended" rating for the industry, with key focus on beauty & personal care, IP derivatives, and gold & jewelry sectors within new consumption categories. Recommended targets include: Shanghai Shangmei Cosmetics, EverYoung, Marubi, Runben, Proya, Trend Macro, BrucoCo, Freda, and others.
Risk Warnings Risks include downstream demand falling short of expectations, trade friction risks, geopolitical risks, and intensified industry competition risks.