NVIDIA, the AI industry’s bellwether, finds itself at the center of market turbulence. CEO Jensen Huang recently quipped during an earnings call: "Some memes say we’re holding up the Earth—sounds exaggerated, but not entirely wrong." The pressure stems from NVIDIA’s perceived role as both the driver and potential scapegoat of the AI boom.
Despite posting stellar Q3 FY2026 results—$57 billion revenue (up 62% YoY) and $31.9 billion adjusted net profit (up 65%)—Wall Street reacted tepidly. After an initial 5% surge, NVIDIA shares closed down 3%, erasing $142 billion in market cap. The selloff deepened on November 25 with another $115 billion wiped out, prompting Huang to publicly reassure investors.
The immediate trigger? Google’s Gemini 3 model, which outperforms OpenAI’s ChatGPT while bypassing NVIDIA’s chips, relying instead on Google’s proprietary TPUs. Reports suggest Google is pitching its TPU solutions to Meta, a major NVIDIA client. While NVIDIA’s Blackwell chips boast industry-leading performance, their $30,000-$40,000 price tag (often bundled with systems) makes Google’s cheaper, albeit less versatile, TPUs attractive to cost-conscious firms.
Yet NVIDIA’s long-term prospects remain robust. Its $100 billion investment in OpenAI signals deep alignment with AI’s growth trajectory. Even as competitors emerge, NVIDIA benefits from the broader AI narrative—the more successful AI firms become, the brighter its outlook.
Short-term volatility, however, reflects NVIDIA’s role as a market barometer. Analysts note that U.S. stocks, particularly tech leaders, face historic fragility. Bank of America data shows S&P 500 top-50 stocks are more vulnerable now than during the 2008 crisis. NVIDIA, as the AI rally’s poster child, bears disproportionate scrutiny—any stumble risks outsized selloffs.
The root issue? Markets have raced ahead of reality. The Nasdaq 100 surged 85% since ChatGPT’s debut, while the "Magnificent Seven" jumped 200%. Without clear timelines for AI’s commercial payoff, anxiety festers. Even optimists like Ray Dalio acknowledge tech stocks could correct sharply if AI progress stalls.
NVIDIA’s challenge mirrors Cisco’s dot-com boom trajectory—though with a saner 44x P/E ratio. To sustain its valuation, NVIDIA must keep delivering hypergrowth amid rising competition and geopolitical headwinds. Until AI’s economic impact materializes, the market’s anxiety will keep taking its toll on NVIDIA.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly disclosed information and does not constitute investment advice.