Abstract

Chevron will release its Q4 2025 results Pre-Market on January 30, 2026. The preview highlights consensus expectations for modest revenue growth and softer EPS, with attention on upstream price realizations, Permian execution, and integration progress with Hess.

Market Forecast

Consensus compiled from the company’s forecast set indicates Chevron’s Q4 2025 revenue estimate at $47.32 billion, down 9.39% year over year but up 1.23% sequentially from the prior quarter’s reported revenue, with forecast EBIT at $5.04 billion and EPS at $1.49, each carrying year-over-year declines of 16.66% and 29.47%, respectively. Based on last quarter’s margins, investors expect gross profit margin dynamics to track commodity spreads, while net profit margin is projected to compress year over year; adjusted EPS is expected to reflect lower upstream realizations and downstream capture versus the prior year.

Chevron’s main business is “Sales and Other Operating,” supported by equity affiliates and other items; near-term outlook emphasizes upstream volumes and downstream margins. The most promising segment is Permian-focused upstream tied to “Sales and Other Operating,” where revenue last quarter was $48.17 billion and growth drivers hinge on well productivity and cost control; year-over-year growth detail was not disclosed in the company breakdown.

Last Quarter Review

Chevron’s last reported quarter delivered revenue of $49.73 billion, a gross profit margin of 43.80%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $3.54 billion, a net profit margin of 7.26%, and adjusted EPS of $1.85, with adjusted EPS down 26.30% year over year.

A notable highlight was outperformance versus consensus on adjusted EPS and EBIT, driven by operational execution despite softer commodity pricing. Main business revenue was concentrated in “Sales and Other Operating” at $48.17 billion, alongside equity income of $0.98 billion and other revenue of $0.58 billion; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed in the breakdown.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Sales and Other Operating

The core “Sales and Other Operating” business underpins Chevron’s quarterly performance and reflects consolidated results from upstream production and downstream marketing and refining. With Q4 revenue forecast at $47.32 billion and EBIT at $5.04 billion, the market implies modest sequential stabilization after Q3’s $49.73 billion actual revenue. Price realizations for oil and gas typically drive upstream revenue, while crack spreads and product demand influence downstream margins, suggesting gross margin could normalize around last quarter’s levels if refined product spreads remain resilient. The company’s net profit margin at 7.26% in Q3 sets a reference point, yet the forecasted EPS decline to $1.49 indicates compression on profitability from year-ago levels, aligning with softer year-over-year commodity comparisons and possible maintenance or turnaround activity in refining. Investors will watch whether Q4 refining utilization and capture rates offset weaker upstream realizations, with the sequential revenue lift hinting that volume stability and a slight improvement in product pricing may support the overall run-rate.

Most Promising Upstream Growth

The most promising growth lever sits in upstream operations embedded within “Sales and Other Operating,” particularly in shale assets where short-cycle investment can translate into near-term volumes. Recent quarters have highlighted strong execution and cost discipline, enabling Chevron to outperform EPS expectations even with year-over-year declines. For Q4, upstream productivity and wellhead efficiency are crucial to safeguarding margins against volatility in realized prices. Sustained progress in development drilling, completion cadence, and infrastructure throughput can support EBIT resilience relative to the forecast $5.04 billion. If upstream volumes hold up while lifting costs remain contained, the company could mitigate the forecasted EPS drop to $1.49 and maintain a gross profit margin comparable to Q3’s 43.80%. The degree of downstream offset also matters; refinery turnarounds or lower capture rates would pressure segment earnings, but stable crack spreads could help bridge upstream volatility and maintain consolidated profitability near the Q3 net margin benchmark.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The first decisive factor is commodity price realizations across oil and natural gas, which directly translate into upstream revenue and affect consolidated profitability; even small shifts in Brent and Henry Hub benchmarks can materially change earnings leverage relative to the $5.04 billion EBIT forecast. The second is downstream margin capture—crack spreads, retail demand, and operating reliability—which can provide a buffer to upstream swings; if utilization remains high, the company may sustain gross margin near the prior quarter’s 43.80%. The third is capital allocation signals, including buyback pace and dividend commitments, which affect investor sentiment around the EPS outlook; with an expected adjusted EPS of $1.49, commentary on distribution priorities and any guidance for early 2026 can influence the market’s interpretation of earnings quality. Integration milestones with strategic assets and JV performance reflected in “Equity” revenue of $0.98 billion last quarter will also be watched, as stronger affiliate contributions could lift net margin above the implied forecast trajectory.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional views lean bullish. Buy ratings outweighed Hold ratings during the period from October 21, 2025, to January 23, 2026, with positive stances from Wells Fargo, Evercore ISI, Mizuho Securities, RBC Capital, Morgan Stanley, and additional supportive perspectives, versus neutral views from TD Cowen, Barclays, and Scotiabank. Wells Fargo’s Roger Read maintained a Buy with a price target of $196.00, emphasizing operational execution and capital discipline that position Chevron to navigate softer year-over-year commodity comparisons. Evercore ISI’s Stephen Richardson reiterated Buy at $180.00, noting resilient cash generation and portfolio quality that underpin near-term earnings even in a lower price tape. Mizuho’s Nitin Kumar reaffirmed Buy with a $204.00 target, highlighting upstream efficiency and balanced downstream exposure that can stabilize EBIT around the $5.04 billion forecast. RBC Capital’s Biraj Borkhataria restated Buy with a $175.00 target, citing durable free cash flow support for distributions despite the projected EPS decline to $1.49. Morgan Stanley’s Devin McDermott kept Buy at $174.00, focusing on volume execution, cost control, and downstream capture as offsets to year-over-year headwinds.

The balance of opinion centers on how Q4 margins evolve relative to Q3’s 43.80% gross margin and 7.26% net margin. Bullish analysts expect steady operational performance and disciplined capital allocation to limit downside to EPS versus consensus, with sequential revenue stabilization to $47.32 billion serving as a positive indicator. They anticipate that upstream productivity and downstream reliability will anchor EBIT close to forecasts, while any strength in product cracks or affiliate earnings could provide incremental support to net margin and adjusted EPS. In this view, Chevron’s diversified cash engines across core “Sales and Other Operating,” equity contributions, and other revenue items help maintain earnings quality and visibility into early 2026, reinforcing the bullish stance during the current reporting cycle.