Gold Market Trend Analysis On December 1, gold prices surged last week, closing with a gain of $154.39, up 3.80%, driven by heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. Technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook for gold in the short term. The core driver of this rally stems from a rapid shift in policy expectations. Recently, dovish signals from Fed Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams, coupled with weak post-government-shutdown economic data, have reignited market bets on a December rate cut.
Last Friday, gold initially rose before retreating, finding support at the 5-day moving average before rebounding. However, it faced resistance near the daily chart’s upper boundary, dropping $20 before breaking through again late in the session to reach 4226. From a trend perspective, the weekly chart shows short-term moving averages turning upward for the second time, with this week’s key support level near the 5-week moving average at 4120. On the daily chart, short-term support lies at the 45-day moving average, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forming a bullish alignment. The focus now is whether the previous high of 4245 can be breached. A breakout could push prices toward the 0.764 (4265) and 0.809 (4287) Fibonacci levels. Thus, the strategy leans toward buying on dips. Based on the chart, the previous resistance-turned-support level around 4208 is critical—a break below this level could lead to further declines toward 4192 and 4187.
On the 4-hour chart, the stochastic oscillator shows a golden cross, signaling bullish momentum. The MACD lines are also upward-sloping, reinforcing the bullish outlook. The price action suggests a slow but steady uptrend with support levels at 4208, 4195, and 4170, offering potential entry points for short-term trades. On the daily chart, the stochastic indicator remains in a golden cross, supporting the bullish case, while the MACD lines are in a state of divergence—though forming a golden cross, they lack strong momentum, warranting caution against a false breakout. The price is currently testing the upper Bollinger Band, indicating short-term resistance without a clear breakout. The key resistance remains at 4245.
Intraday strategy: Consider buying near 4208, exiting if the support breaks. If the price falls below 4208, a short-term bearish trade targeting 4187-4192 could be viable before reassessing for another long position. The broader framework suggests a potential short opportunity if prices reach 4287, with short-term trades around 4245 and 4265 based on 5-minute chart signals.
Disclaimer: The content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making decisions.