Wednesday will feel like a recurring "Groundhog Day" for US Treasury traders. As they have for over a year, they will closely watch whether the US Treasury Department adjusts its guidance in its latest borrowing plans. Investors are looking for any change in the Treasury's quarterly refunding statement regarding the phrasing that it does not anticipate increasing the issuance of intermediate and long-term bonds "for at least the next several quarters." While longer-dated Treasuries currently carry higher costs than short-term bills, relying heavily on T-bills to finance the nearly $2 trillion annual deficit also carries its own risks. "They can't just keep saying 'at least several quarters' indefinitely," said Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management in Philadelphia. He noted that officials will eventually have to consider boosting coupon-bearing debt sales. Increasing the issuance of bills maturing in one year or less makes the government's borrowing costs more vulnerable to sudden interest rate swings and shifts in market sentiment, as bill auctions occur more frequently. Just last month, the International Monetary Fund warned of such dangers. However, the Treasury has reason to believe that strong demand can, for now, absorb the increased supply of bills. Money market fund assets have grown to approximately $7.6 trillion—with about 42% invested in Treasuries—and continue to expand. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also argued that the proposed GENIUS Act could attract trillions of dollars into Treasuries, as it would require stablecoin issuers to hold reserves in assets like T-bills. Before Bessent took office last year, he had criticized the guidance provided under former Secretary Janet Yellen. More recent statements suggest officials are evaluating the potential for "future increases" in auctions of coupon and floating-rate securities but have provided no timeline. This has kept dealers alert to any wording changes on Wednesday. "If they drop the 'at least' and just say 'several,' then the market will interpret that as having about three more quarters of coupon issuance at this level," McIntyre said. What the Treasury cannot avoid is the persistent growth in overall debt, which continuously pushes total issuance higher. This burden is only increasing. Costs related to conflicts, uncertainty around future trade tariffs, and slowing economic growth have led to warnings of a widening budget deficit. The Treasury is scheduled to update its estimate for expected borrowing needs in the current quarter on Monday, ahead of the refunding announcement. In February, it preliminarily projected net borrowing of $109 billion for the quarter ending in June. For next week's refunding auctions, dealers widely expect the following schedule: May 11: $58 billion in 3-year notes May 12: $42 billion in 10-year notes May 13: $25 billion in 30-year bonds The level of scrutiny on the Treasury's statement wording is evident from the range of potential changes suggested by Wall Street strategists. JPMorgan sees a "significant possibility" that the Treasury will remove the word "at least" from its guidance. Barclays expects "at least" to remain but for "several" to be changed to "the next several" quarters. Wells Fargo suggested possible phrasing such as "through at least the end of calendar year 2026" or perhaps the removal of the sentence entirely. Strategists at Morgan Stanley, including Martin Tobias, wrote in a preview, "Recent yield increases suggest the Treasury will maintain a cautious stance in its forward guidance." The 10-year yield has risen from around 4.27% at the time of the last refunding announcement to approximately 4.41%.