On September 7th, data released by the People's Bank of China showed that as of the end of August, China's gold reserves reached 74.02 million ounces, an increase of 600,000 ounces from July's 73.96 million ounces, marking the 10th consecutive month of gold accumulation.

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Orient Finance, stated that the proportion of gold in China's official international reserve assets is significantly lower than the global average. From the perspectives of optimizing international reserve structure, steadily advancing RMB internationalization, and responding to current international environmental changes, future central bank gold purchases remain the major direction.

On September 3rd, Tavi Costa, Partner and Macro Strategist at asset management firm Crescat Capital, compiled and released data showing that as gold prices hit new records, gold's share in central bank reserves (excluding the Federal Reserve) exceeded US Treasuries for the first time since 1996. Costa believes this turning point could mark "the beginning of the most significant global rebalancing in modern history," reflecting central banks' strategic adjustment of reserve asset structures from US dollar bonds toward physical assets like gold.

Regarding international gold prices, on September 6th, spot gold rose 1.15% to $2,586 per ounce, setting a new high and briefly breaking through $2,600 per ounce during trading. This followed the breakthrough of $2,545 per ounce on the 3rd, continuing to reach new highs. COMEX gold futures rose 0.92% to $2,639.8 per ounce. On the same day, some gold jewelry brand prices exceeded 1,050 yuan per gram. Chow Sang Sang pure gold jewelry was priced at 1,059 yuan per gram; Lao Miao pure gold jewelry at 1,053 yuan per gram; and Chow Tai Fook pure gold (jewelry and crafts) at 1,060 yuan per gram.

Gold has been one of the strongest-performing major commodities this year, with gains exceeding 30%. This round of international gold price increases has mainly benefited from central bank purchases and bets on the Federal Reserve's imminent rate cuts. Recently, Trump's actions to strengthen control over the Federal Reserve, including pushing to remove Director Lisa Cook, have also provided further support for gold prices.

According to analysis by Dong Ximiao, Chief Researcher at China Merchants Union, after the release of US July core inflation data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September rose significantly. Fed Chairman Powell recently signaled rate cuts, clearly indicating that monetary policy stance may need adjustment. Federal Reserve rate cuts mean declining returns on US dollar assets, enhancing gold's attractiveness as an asset allocation.

Dong Ximiao noted that recent actions by President Trump to remove Federal Reserve directors have triggered market concerns about Fed independence. This policy uncertainty has led investors to turn to gold as a "financial safety net." Data shows that amid various risk-averse sentiments, gold ETF inflows have increased significantly.

Goldman Sachs believes that if Federal Reserve credibility is damaged and investors convert a small portion of their US Treasury holdings to gold, international gold prices could surge to nearly $5,000 per ounce. The baseline forecast is: rising to $2,700 per ounce by mid-2025; under tail risk scenarios rising to $2,900 per ounce; even if just 1% of privately held US Treasuries shift to gold, prices could surge to nearly $3,000 per ounce.

Related Concept Stocks:

ZIJIN MINING (02899): In the first half of 2024, ZIJIN MINING achieved operating revenue of 167.711 billion yuan, up 11.50% year-over-year; net profit attributable to parent company of 23.292 billion yuan, up over 50% year-over-year, marking the company's first time achieving interim net profit exceeding 20 billion yuan in its history. During the same period, ZIJIN MINING's mineral copper, mineral gold, mineral zinc (lead), and mineral silver production reached 570,000 tons, 41 tons, 200,000 tons, and 223 tons respectively, with year-over-year changes of 10%, 17%, -9%, and 6%. Benefiting from both volume and price increases and cost optimization, ZIJIN MINING's overall mineral product gross margin increased by 3 percentage points year-over-year to 60.23%.

ZHAOJIN MINING (01818): In the first half of 2024, ZHAOJIN MINING's revenue was approximately 6.973 billion yuan, an increase of about 50.69% compared to the same period last year; net profit was approximately 1.777 billion yuan, an increase of about 144.58% compared to the same period last year; profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was approximately 1.44 billion yuan, an increase of about 160.44% compared to the same period last year.

SD GOLD (01787): In the first half of 2024, SD GOLD achieved operating revenue of 56.766 billion yuan, up 24.01% year-over-year; net profit attributable to listed company shareholders of 2.808 billion yuan, up 102.98% year-over-year. In the first half, the company coordinated efforts to stabilize growth, improve quality and efficiency, promote reforms, strengthen innovation, and prevent risks, with gold production and major economic indicators reaching historic highs. Mineral gold production reached 24.71 tons, with self-produced gold sales of 23.60 tons.

LINGBAO GOLD (03330): In the first half of 2024, LINGBAO GOLD achieved revenue of 7.793 billion yuan, up 82.02% year-over-year. Profit attributable to shareholders was 664 million yuan, up 335.28% year-over-year. During the reporting period, the group produced approximately 10,821 kilograms of gold ingots, an increase of approximately 2,870 kilograms compared to the same period last year.