According to Woofun AI, cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out on Thursday that the market is displaying a strange "putting the cart before the horse" situation: every bearish argument he built on the macroeconomy has been validated, yet Bitcoin alone has strengthened against the trend, defying the expected correlation with traditional assets.

The deterioration in macro fundamentals is spreading through traditional markets. Rising oil prices have pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield up to 5.1%, while the Federal Reserve's response appears sluggish, failing to curb inflationary pressure in time through rate hikes. The 2-year US Treasury yield, a reference indicator for the neutral rate, surged 20 basis points in a single day to 4.9%, whereas the federal funds rate remains at 4%. Cowen believes this means the policy level is a full percentage point below what is needed to control inflation. The dual pressure of rising yields and a strengthening dollar has caused the S&P 500 to stall after peaking in mid-August, while gold and silver have also weakened, falling precisely into the weak window from mid-September to mid-October that Cowen had predicted. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that with the above macro indicators uniformly pointing to risk aversion, neither traditional safe-haven assets nor risk assets were spared.

However, Bitcoin's technical picture has undergone a fundamental reversal. Cowen compared the current situation with historical cases: previously, Bitcoin had only twice closed a week above its 50-week moving average, and the 2015 instance ultimately proved to be a false breakout. Although Bitcoin did go on to experience a bull market after that, it hit a new low in the early stage of the breakout. Cowen admitted that he had previously assigned only a 35% probability to Bitcoin bottoming, a judgment that damaged his short-term credibility. Now, given that Bitcoin's price has broken above its May high, he has revised his view and believes the market trend has clearly turned bullish. He stressed that the weekly closing price is the key signal confirming the formation of a bottom, and that if the price falls back below $83,000, it could trigger the fourth-quarter pullback he originally expected, though not necessarily a new low. He cited the case of silver in 2012 as a warning: even though the weekly close briefly failed, silver ultimately went on to rally, suggesting that short-term fluctuations should not obscure the long-term trend.

Faced with the divergence between macro data and Bitcoin's price action, Cowen concluded: the other four data points all suggest caution, while Bitcoin points entirely in the opposite direction. He said bluntly that "the market doesn't necessarily have to be logical," and stressed that until Bitcoin's price structure undergoes a substantive change, traders should prioritize price action as the basis for judgment rather than being bound by macro theory.