Abstract

Par Pacific will release its fourth quarter 2025 results on February 24, 2026 Post Market, with this preview covering the latest consensus forecasts, last quarter’s performance, the company’s business mix, and the key themes expected to shape the results and stock reaction.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s latest projections and market expectations, Par Pacific’s current-quarter revenue is estimated at $1.73 billion, implying 2.39% year-over-year growth, with estimated EBIT of $85.49 million and adjusted EPS of $1.27, reflecting year-over-year increases of 838.47% and 230.68%, respectively. Forecast data on gross profit margin and net profit margin is not available; expectations center on disciplined operations and throughput consistency supporting earnings quality.

The main business is projected to remain anchored by refining, with revenue concentration and operational execution guiding quarterly outcomes; retail and logistics are expected to contribute steady cash flow and inventory management discipline. The most promising segment remains refining, which generated $1.95 billion last quarter; while overall revenue declined 6.11% year-over-year, refining’s scale and operating leverage continue to underpin consolidated results and near-term margin stability.

Last Quarter Review

Par Pacific delivered revenue of $2.01 billion in the previous quarter, with a gross profit margin of 27.78%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $263.00 million, a net profit margin of 13.05%, and adjusted EPS of $2.10, reflecting year-over-year growth of 2,200% for EPS and a 6.11% year-over-year decline in revenue.

A notable highlight was the quarter-on-quarter surge in GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company, which rose by 341.69%, showing a sharp sequential step-up in profitability, supported by unit availability and cost discipline. Main business performance was led by refining revenue of $1.95 billion, complemented by $151.33 million from retail and $80.31 million from logistics, with corporate, eliminations, and other at -$164.07 million; while total revenue declined 6.11% year-over-year, the business mix showed concentration in higher-margin refining operations.

Current Quarter Outlook

Refining: Execution, Utilization, and Margin Control

Refining is the central determinant of earnings variability this quarter and the primary driver of operating results. Forecasts infer that Par Pacific’s consolidated revenue growth of 2.39% year-over-year and the substantial 838.47% year-over-year increase in EBIT are predicated on reliable unit availability and disciplined throughput targets across the portfolio. The previous quarter’s gross margin of 27.78% and net margin of 13.05% set a reference point; sustaining margin quality will depend on stable operating costs, product mix optimization, and minimized downtime through planned maintenance. The magnitude of the forecasted EBIT increase suggests a large base effect from prior-year comparables and potentially improved spreads, but the more modest revenue growth implies performance emphasis on margin capture rather than volume expansion. The stock’s near-term reaction will be sensitive to the degree to which realized margins match internal targets; any shortfall could reduce the modeled operating leverage that underpins the EPS estimate of $1.27. Attention is likely to center on run-rate commentary, product yield shifts, and any disclosure on turnaround timing or unit constraints that could alter throughput and cost absorption dynamics.

Retail and Logistics: Cash Generation, Inventory Discipline, and Working Capital

Retail and logistics provide resiliency and cash-flow support that can smooth earnings through cycles, and their contribution this quarter will be judged on working-capital efficiency and inventory management as consolidated revenue targets $1.73 billion. Retail’s last quarter revenue of $151.33 million and logistics’ $80.31 million collectively underpin stable operating cash generation outside the more volatile refining results. This quarter, these segments can add value through tighter control of procurement cadence, shrink, and station-level profitability, which helps optimize free cash flow and support shareholder returns. Even though retail and logistics are a smaller proportion of total revenue, improvements in these segments can reduce consolidated volatility, enabling better net margin translation. The quarter’s EPS forecast of $1.27 and EBIT estimate of $85.49 million benefit from operational sync between retail and logistics with refining—where distribution efficiency and inventory turnover help minimize basis risk and improve realized margins at the consolidated level. Investors will focus on whether the company’s retail and logistics network contributes to steady realized margins, consistent inventory turnover, and positive cash conversion alongside refinery run-rate cadence.

Stock Price Drivers: Earnings Mix, One-Offs, and Cash Deployment

The stock price this quarter will be influenced by earnings mix, durability of margin translation, and any clarity provided on one-off items relative to recurring operations. With the previous quarter’s adjusted EPS at $2.10 and consolidated net profit at $263.00 million, investors will parse the sustainability of these levels against management’s framework for throughput, hedging, and cost discipline. The forecast points to a material year-over-year jump in EBIT and EPS while revenue grows modestly, highlighting margin capture as the core theme; any deviation in realized gross and net margins versus implicit expectations could quickly pivot sentiment. Cash deployment—whether through share repurchases or debt management—will factor into perceptions of earnings quality and capital efficiency, particularly as retail and logistics provide contributions to working capital stability. Equally important will be transparency about the contribution of non-recurring items versus underlying operations; investors will prefer confirmation that the quarter’s EPS is supported by recurring operational drivers rather than transitory effects, since that informs valuation multiples and longer-term earnings power.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views predominate among institutional commentators over the current window, with expectations oriented toward disciplined operations, consolidated margin capture, and constructive EPS translation relative to guidance. Analysts pointing to the revenue estimate of $1.73 billion and the EPS estimate of $1.27 emphasize the setup of modest top-line growth paired with significant operating leverage driven by margin management; this stance frames the quarter as one in which execution can validate the forecast profile even if volumes are broadly stable. The bullish camp argues that the earnings mix, with refining as the anchor and retail/logistics supporting cash conversion, is positioned to deliver on consensus, and that the sequential strength in last quarter’s net profit (up 341.69% quarter-on-quarter) provides momentum heading into the print. While granular sell-side previews are limited in the immediate period, the available institutional commentary in January and February indicates confidence in the company’s ability to maintain margin discipline and translate operational reliability into EPS aligned with the $1.27 estimate. On balance, this view aligns with the majority: bullish opinions outweigh bearish ones, with the constructive narrative centered on achievable revenue growth of 2.39% year-over-year and strong EBIT expansion of 838.47% year-over-year, supported by operating cadence that has been consistent across recent quarters.