According to intelligence sources, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that based on General Administration of Customs data, China's cobalt intermediate product imports from June to August were 19,000 tons, 13,800 tons, and 5,200 tons respectively, representing month-over-month declines of -61.62%, -27.26%, and -62.05%. If calculated based on a 7-month suspension of exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), global effective cobalt supply is expected to decline 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons in 2025. Should the export ban be extended further, raw material shortage risks may intensify. Since the DRC implemented cobalt export restrictions in February 2025, cobalt prices have risen from the year's historical low of 159,000 yuan/ton to 277,000 yuan/ton. As the world's largest cobalt supplier, the DRC has a clear stance on controlling cobalt supply, with supply-side constraints expected to persist and cobalt prices anticipated to trend upward.
The main viewpoints from Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. are as follows:
The DRC is the primary global supplier of cobalt resources. Since February 2025, export bans on cobalt products have significantly disrupted the supply side. The current round of DRC cobalt export restrictions began on February 22, 2025, when the DRC government announced a 4-month cobalt export ban, subsequently extending it by 3 months in June. With the policy window approaching, the possibility of further extending the export ban cannot be ruled out.
The impact of the DRC cobalt export ban on the supply side is gradually becoming apparent, with China's cobalt imports continuing to decline from June to August 2025. According to General Administration of Customs data, China's cobalt intermediate product imports from June to August were 19,000 tons, 13,800 tons, and 5,200 tons respectively, representing month-over-month declines of -61.62%, -27.26%, and -62.05%. If calculated based on a 7-month suspension of DRC exports, global effective cobalt supply is expected to decline 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons in 2025. Should the ban be extended further, raw material shortage risks may intensify.
On the demand side, downstream cobalt applications primarily include power batteries, non-power batteries, and alloy materials. Traditional sectors are currently stabilizing while emerging sectors show growth potential, with overall demand exhibiting steady growth. Specifically in the battery sector, although ternary battery demand remains weak, demand from drones, 3C devices, and other sectors has performed well, providing incremental demand for cobalt in non-power battery applications. Under neutral assumptions, cobalt demand is expected to grow 5.06% to 210,900 tons in 2025. Looking further ahead, emerging sectors including low-altitude economy and robotics will provide long-term support for future cobalt demand growth.
Given the tight supply situation ahead, cobalt prices are expected to continue rising in the short term. From a long-term perspective, the DRC government has a clear stance on cobalt supply control, providing strong support for cobalt's long-term price center. Since the DRC implemented cobalt export restrictions in February 2025, cobalt prices have risen from the year's historical low of 159,000 yuan/ton to 277,000 yuan/ton. With short-term supply disruptions continuing and domestic inventories gradually depleting, cobalt prices are expected to keep rising. Long-term, given the DRC government's clear stance on cobalt supply control, the likelihood of directly lifting export restrictions is low. The government may adopt quota systems or other methods to regulate cobalt supply, providing strong support for long-term cobalt price levels.
For investment targets, attention should be paid to profit elasticity of cobalt sector companies, including Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ), China Molybdenum (603993.SH), LYGEND RESOURCE (02245), and Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ).
Risk warnings include: DRC cobalt export restrictions falling short of expectations and downstream demand falling short of expectations.