OPEC partially refuted market speculation regarding a substantial production surge by Saudi Arabia in June, with its latest monthly report indicating only a marginal increase. According to statistics from OPEC's Vienna-based secretariat, Saudi Arabia raised daily output by 173,000 barrels last month to an average of 9.356 million barrels per day. The secretariat—which typically compiles data from external media sources and national advisors—noted this aligns with Saudi Arabia's production quota.

Following OPEC's dismissal of the output surge rumors, Brent crude futures edged up 0.07% to around $69 per barrel. Investor concerns over a potential oil supply glut eased further after Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 price forecast, shifting focus from recession risks to supply constraints. The Wall Street firm highlighted dwindling OECD oil inventories, shrinking spare capacity projections, and concerns over constrained Russian oil and gas production.

Goldman's bearish outlook on Brent this year stems from expectations of oversupply due to production increases and reduced long-term spare capacity. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan similarly project oil could fall to $60 per barrel or lower in Q4, anticipating significant oversupply through 2026 that may drive sustained price declines. JPMorgan maintains a commodities strategy favoring gold while shorting crude and base metals.

Discrepancies emerged in production measurements, however. While OPEC’s report cited Saudi-supplied data showing 9.36 million barrels per day—perfectly matching its quota—footnotes revealed this represented "supply to the market," with actual wellhead production near 9.752 million barrels. External agencies including S&P Global Commodity Insights and Argus Media reported figures substantially higher than OPEC’s 9.356 million barrel estimate. OPEC requested these agencies measure market supply rather than wellhead output without explanation.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously reported Saudi Arabia quadrupled its quota-compliant production levels amid heightened Gulf exports during the Israel-Iran conflict. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry acknowledged a "temporary" June increase due to Middle East instability but emphasized most added volumes entered reserves, minimizing actual market supply.

OPEC maintained its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day—notably higher than IEA projections and exceeding Wall Street estimates. Its outlook for non-OPEC supply remained unchanged. Geopolitical uncertainties, including renewed U.S. trade tensions, continue clouding demand forecasts.