Cement stocks declined broadly across the board. As of press time, BBMG (02009) fell 5.49% to HK$0.86; WESTCHINACEMENT (02233) dropped 4.12% to HK$3.26; CONCH CEMENT (00914) declined 3.92% to HK$24; CNBM (03323) fell 3.85% to HK$5.5; and HUAXIN CEMENT (06655) dropped 1.59% to HK$16.73.
A research report noted that the third quarter represents the traditional off-season for the cement industry, with cement prices expected to be higher in the first half of 2025 and lower in the second half. According to Digital Cement Network, the average cement price in Q3 2025 was 353.1 yuan per ton, down 27.6 yuan per ton quarter-on-quarter and 33.5 yuan per ton year-on-year. Cement production in July and August declined 5.5% and 7.0% year-on-year respectively. The cement industry's profitability in the third quarter is expected to be under overall pressure.
On September 24, six government departments jointly released the "Building Materials Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)," with policy focus shifting from the revenue side to the profit side, further requiring the cement industry to complete excess capacity indicator disposal before the end of 2025. Q4 is expected to be the peak period for supplementing capacity indicators, and industry capacity contraction is expected to accelerate.
Looking ahead, "Golden September, Silver October" demand is expected to continue growing, but given the weakness in terminal markets, the growth is expected to be limited. Considering that winter will bring extended periods of staggered kiln shutdowns, combined with current marginal demand improvements, cement companies are expected to continue actively pushing up cement prices. Additionally, coal prices have upward expectations, which will further support cement prices.
Furthermore, analysts believe that "anti-involution" measures are accelerating industry supply optimization, supply-demand contradictions are expected to ease, cement prices have upward expectations, and regional leading companies' profitability is expected to recover.