Abstract

NiSource will release its fourth-quarter results on February 11, 2026 Pre-Market; investors will focus on revenue normalization after warm-weather demand swings, margin resilience from regulatory trackers, and whether cost control and capital deployment sustain EPS momentum into 2026.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company-compiled projections indicate that NiSource’s current quarter revenue is estimated at $1.52 billion, down 9.05% year over year, with EBIT forecast at $0.46 billion and EPS at $0.50, implying modest year-over-year improvement; margin expectations point to stable-to-slightly higher profitability as efficiency and rate mechanisms offset fuel pass-through volatility. Main operations are expected to be led by NIPSCO and Columbia regulated utility operations, with a continued emphasis on rate-base growth and tracker mechanisms that stabilize gross margin and net margin across natural gas and electric distribution. The most promising segment remains NIPSCO operations, benefiting from ongoing rate-base expansion and infrastructure modernization; it contributed $0.79 billion last quarter, and the platform is positioned for steady mid-single-digit growth supported by approved capital plans.

Last Quarter Review

NiSource’s prior quarter delivered revenue of $1.27 billion, a gross profit margin of 53.29%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $94.70 million, a net profit margin of 7.44%, and adjusted EPS of $0.19, with year-over-year actual growth on EPS at -5.00%. A notable highlight was EBIT of $0.29 billion, which outperformed prior estimates and reflected improved cost discipline and constructive regulatory outcomes. Main business drivers were NIPSCO operations at $0.79 billion and Columbia operations at $0.49 billion, with overall portfolio stability aided by tracker mechanisms and offset by negative $0.15 billion in consolidating eliminations.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Regulated Distribution Operations

NiSource’s core regulated natural gas and electric distribution businesses are expected to show resilient earnings quality despite a lower revenue print driven by fuel and purchased gas cost pass-throughs. Because commodity costs are largely passed through and tracked with riders, the top line can fluctuate without directly determining margin dollars, which are more closely tied to approved rates and underlying customer usage. For the February quarter, EBIT is projected at $0.46 billion and EPS at $0.50, which imply stable to modestly expanding margin capture as ongoing O&M discipline and cost recoveries take hold. Management’s capital program and tracker-enabled investments continue to convert into rate base, supporting sustained regulated returns and cushioning weather or volume variability. The company’s pre-quarter outturn showed EBIT above external estimates, reinforcing visibility into constructive cost recovery and rate design that should continue through the winter quarter.

NIPSCO Operations as the Growth Platform

NIPSCO remains the largest earnings engine, with last quarter revenue of $0.79 billion anchoring the consolidated mix. Growth prospects are tied to the multiyear capital plan focused on gas distribution modernization, electric grid reliability, and generation resource transition, which should expand rate base and earnings capacity. The forecast calls for revenue contraction at the consolidated level due to commodity normalization, but NIPSCO’s regulated margin profile is expected to hold, with incremental uplift from previously approved trackers and select rate updates. Given the relatively predictable cash flows of regulated infrastructure deployment, NIPSCO’s contribution should help support the forecasted EPS of $0.50 and a steady gross margin structure near recent levels, while timing of capital additions and seasonal demand will dictate quarter-to-quarter variability. Execution risks include construction timing and regulatory scheduling, yet recent EBIT outperformance suggests the plan is tracking.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The first determinant for the stock near the print is whether margin metrics prove resilient despite a lower revenue base, as investors parse the relationship between pass-through dynamics and earnings quality. A second driver is clarity on regulatory cadence across NiSource’s jurisdictions, especially the pace of tracker updates and interim mechanisms that influence cash recovery of infrastructure spending. Finally, capital allocation color—spanning 2026 investment pacing, balance sheet capacity, and cost-of-capital assumptions—will shape views on forward EPS growth consistency; the company’s ability to deliver EBIT of $0.46 billion while holding O&M inflation in check would underpin confidence in the annual growth algorithm. Weather normalization is a wildcard for quarterly noise, but well-designed rate structures typically mitigate outsized swings in net margin.

Analyst Opinions

Most recent institutional commentary leans constructive on regulated utilities with stable rate-base growth, and NiSource is often cited as benefiting from a visible capital plan and supportive tracker mechanisms, yielding a cautiously bullish stance ahead of the quarter. Analysts highlighting the pass-through nature of commodity costs argue that revenue declines should not be conflated with earnings risk, and they expect EPS near $0.50 with limited variance given regulatory protections. The predominant view emphasizes that incremental rate base from modernization programs, along with prior EBIT outperformance versus estimates, positions NiSource to deliver in-line to slightly better results; lingering debates center on weather sensitivity and timing of regulatory filings, but these are framed as transitory compared with the multi-year investment runway.