Abstract

AAON Inc will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on March 02, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview outlines consensus revenue, margin, and EPS expectations and contrasts them with last quarter’s actuals and segment trends.

Market Forecast

Consensus for AAON Inc’s current quarter indicates revenue of $372.35 million with an estimated year-over-year increase of 16.18%, estimated EBIT of $52.60 million with a year-over-year decline of 9.93%, and estimated adjusted EPS of $0.45 with a year-over-year decline of 15.83%. Forecast gross margin and net margin are not explicitly provided; however, the prior report showed a gross margin of 27.81% and net margin of 8.01%, which set the frame for investor expectations on profitability compression. The company’s main business is AAON-branded HVAC products and BASX-branded mission-critical systems, and near-term highlights center on backlog conversion and pricing discipline amid input-cost fluctuations. The BASX product line appears the most promising segment, with reported revenue of $124.79 million last quarter and strong growth momentum tied to data center and cleanroom demand.

Last Quarter Review

AAON Inc’s last quarter delivered revenue of $384.24 million, a gross profit margin of 27.81%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $30.78 million, a net profit margin of 8.01%, and adjusted EPS of $0.37, with revenue growing 17.41% year over year and EPS down 41.27% year over year. The quarter’s key highlight was solid revenue growth alongside margin pressure that constrained earnings, with EBIT of $43.60 million running below the prior year on a comparable basis. Main business highlights: AAON products generated $259.45 million and BASX products delivered $124.79 million; growth in BASX was supported by mission-critical customer activity and large-project shipments.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Core AAON-Branded HVAC Products

AAON-branded HVAC products constitute the company’s core revenue base and are central to quarterly performance. Pricing, product mix, and factory throughput will influence whether the company can stabilize margins after the prior quarter’s compression. With revenue last quarter of $259.45 million, the segment is positioned to benefit from seasonal demand patterns and continued backlog drawdown. Investors will track order intake trends in light commercial and industrial rooftop units, where replacement cycles provide resilient demand even as macro indicators (construction starts and architectural billings) show mixed signals. Profitability hinges on the balance between pricing actions taken in 2025 and input-cost trends, particularly steel, compressors, and electronics; if cost relief persists while pricing holds, the segment could see modest margin recovery relative to the 27.81% consolidated gross margin baseline. A secondary factor is the cadence of warranty and freight costs, which can swing reported margins; steadying these line items would contribute to EPS stability given the model’s operating leverage.

Most Promising Business: BASX Mission-Critical Systems

BASX products—spanning data center cooling, cleanroom environments, and specialized HVAC solutions—remain the company’s largest growth opportunity, with $124.79 million revenue last quarter reflecting strong project deliveries. Structural demand drivers include the expansion of hyperscale data centers and semiconductor/biopharma facilities, where environmental control requirements are stringent and budgets are less cyclical than general commercial projects. The quarter’s forecast calls for consolidated revenue growth of 16.18% year over year to $372.35 million, and BASX is likely to outpace this baseline if project timing continues to favor large-scale deployments. Margin sensitivity rests on project mix: highly engineered, bespoke systems can deliver attractive gross margin, but extended lead times and installation logistics can introduce variability in period results. Execution risk centers on supply chain reliability for specialized components and on-site commissioning; consistent delivery would support EBIT despite forecasts implying a 9.93% year-over-year decline. If BASX maintains strong backlog and conversion rates, it can mitigate the impact of margin headwinds and contribute to EPS above the $0.45 estimate.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s near-term reaction will be driven by three interlinked factors: revenue growth durability, margin trajectory, and earnings quality versus consensus. Revenue guidance or commentary validating the 16.18% year-over-year growth estimate will anchor the bull case, especially if management signals stable order intake across AAON and BASX. Margin trajectory will be closely parsed against the prior 27.81% gross margin and 8.01% net margin: any indication of gross margin stabilization or improvement would counter the model-implied EPS decline of 15.83% year over year and support valuation resilience. Earnings quality—including the composition of cost items, FX exposure, and any one-time adjustments—will be reviewed against EBIT guidance and its implied 9.93% year-over-year decline; a narrower EBIT contraction or a positive EPS surprise relative to $0.45 could drive a favorable post-report move. Management’s commentary on backlog, pricing, and input costs will shape expectations for the seasonally stronger mid-year periods, with investors attentive to signals on production capacity and lead times as projects scale.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional commentary over the recent period skews cautiously positive, favoring the view that AAON Inc can deliver revenue growth aligned with consensus while navigating margin headwinds. The majority bullish perspective emphasizes ongoing backlog conversion and the resilience of mission-critical demand in BASX, which supports consolidated revenue near the $372.35 million estimate despite mixed macro indicators. Analysts citing data center and cleanroom project momentum expect the BASX contribution to offset variability in broader commercial HVAC, arguing that a slight contraction in EBIT and EPS—estimated at $52.60 million and $0.45, respectively—reflects conservatism in modeling rather than a deterioration of end-market conditions. The positive view also points to operating improvements and pricing discipline that could underpin gross margin stabilization from the prior 27.81% level, potentially limiting the forecast EPS decline of 15.83% year over year. On balance, the majority outlook anticipates results within or marginally above consensus, contingent on execution in large-ticket BASX projects and steady throughput in AAON-branded units, with investors most sensitive to guidance around margin recovery into the next two quarters.