NBIS closed at USD 177.71, up 3.46%.

Despite the day's price gain, the options market told a different story, dominated by massive, premium-paying bearish bets. Two multi-million dollar double-long put combinations, totaling over $20 million, highlighted institutional positioning for significant downside risk.

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Options Indicators

NBIS is showing extremely high implied volatility at 169.06%, and with an IV percentile of 100.00%, current volatility is sitting at the very top of its historical range. Combined with an IV/HV ratio of 1.50, this suggests the options market is pricing in substantially more future movement than the stock has recently realized, so options appear expensively priced and volatility expectations are notably elevated. The Call/Put volume ratio is 0.84.

Large Trades

A $13.27 million same-direction double-long PUT combination was the largest large trade of the day, built by buying 1,534 contracts of the $210.00 put expiring July 24, 2026 for $6.83 million and simultaneously buying 1,534 contracts of the $210.00 put expiring July 17, 2026 for $6.44 million. This is a net-debit structure, as both legs were purchased, and with the stock reference price at $177.71 both puts were already in the money. Strategically, this is a strongly bearish directional position expressing conviction in downside risk and potentially amplified volatility, with the trader paying substantial premium for two maturities rather than collecting income, which points to an aggressive hedge or outright downside bet.

A $7.14 million same-direction double-long PUT combination was the second major trade, created through the purchase of 3,000 contracts of the $177.50 put expiring July 24, 2026 for $5.00 million and 3,000 contracts of the $177.50 put expiring July 17, 2026 for $2.15 million. This was also a net-debit bearish structure, and with the stock reference price at $177.71 both puts were slightly out of the money at execution. The strategic intent again appears to be a directional downside wager tied to the same strike across two expirations, suggesting the buyer was positioning for a meaningful bearish move while using time diversification to maintain downside exposure across adjacent maturities.

Overall sentiment was decisively bearish, with total bullish large-trade flow at $0.00 million versus total bearish flow at $20.41 million, leaving a net difference of $20.41 million to the bearish side. The directional judgment is clearly negative because all meaningful large-trade activity consisted of premium-paying put purchases, including both deep in-the-money and near-the-money/out-of-the-money structures across two expirations. That pattern indicates traders were not seeking premium collection but were instead committing sizable capital to downside protection or speculative bearish exposure, reinforcing a strong negative market tone around NBIS.

Strategy Reference

For a seller looking to collect premium with low assignment probability in this high-volatility environment, selling out-of-the-money calls, such as at the $250.00 strike, could be a consideration; alternatively, traders preferring defined risk might consider bear put spreads to reduce the capital outlay required for a direct long put position.