On February 24, Bitcoin closed below its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) on the weekly chart for the first time since October 2023. EasyMarkets suggests that this close not only broke an 882-day uptrend but also indicates the failure of a key technical support level that had held for 30 months. Once the price falls below the critical long-term level of $67,628, this former support is likely to turn into strong resistance during any subsequent rebound.

Historically, a breakdown of this magnitude typically signals a prolonged and challenging recovery phase. EasyMarkets points to cycles in 2018, 2020, and 2022, noting that when BTC falls below this moving average, it often remains below it for 8 to 30 weeks, with an average recovery period of around 17 weeks. Meanwhile, the market "activity" indicator, which measures capital flow rotation, has dropped to 0.02622 and fallen below its short-term average. This is often a sign of slowing capital rotation and investors shifting to a wait-and-see mode.

Market focus has now shifted to lower cost-based support levels. On-chain data indicates that the global average holding cost (realized price) is approximately $55,000, with a deeper value zone anchored near $42,000. Looking at major cycles since 2015, the area between the 200-week EMA and the realized price has often served as a "golden zone" for long-term capital to establish strategic positions, though this process is typically accompanied by about six months of consolidation.

Downward pressure is unlikely to ease significantly until the price reclaims a firm footing above $67,628. If buyers fail to quickly recover this level, $55,000 and even $42,000 could become the next battleground for liquidity. This trend breakdown serves as a reminder that the market may be entering an extended bottom-building phase. EasyMarkets advises investors to remain cautious at current levels, paying close attention to the performance of on-chain cost-based support rather than betting blindly on a V-shaped recovery.