Abstract

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. will report quarterly results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market, with current expectations centering on accelerating EPS, modest revenue growth, and stable margin dynamics that will be shaped by the mix between Vacation Ownership sales, financing income, and club management and rental revenue.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, consensus models indicate revenue of 1.35 billion (+6.33% year over year), EBIT of 216.90 million (+26.01% year over year), and adjusted EPS of 1.01 (+32.46% year over year); gross profit margin and net margin forecasts are not disclosed in the estimates. The main business outlook is anchored by Vacation Ownership sales, while recurring fees from resort and club management and rental income provide consistency in cash generation into the quarter. The most promising segment remains Vacation Ownership sales, which delivered 473.00 million last quarter and is positioned to capture incremental demand alongside the company’s 6.33% year-over-year revenue growth trajectory.

Last Quarter Review

The previous quarter delivered revenue of 1.30 billion (down 0.46% year over year), a gross profit margin of 23.20%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 25.00 million, a net profit margin of 2.14%, and adjusted EPS of 0.28 (flat year over year). A notable financial highlight was the quarter-on-quarter net profit growth rate of 0%, with EBIT reported at 157.00 million and down 15.59% year over year. Main business highlights showed a balanced mix: total revenue of 1.30 billion decreased by 0.46% year over year, supported by 473.00 million from Vacation Ownership sales, 193.00 million from resort and club management, 188.00 million from sales, marketing, brand and other, 186.00 million from rental and ancillary services, 132.00 million from reimbursables, and 128.00 million from financing.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Vacation Ownership sales

Vacation Ownership sales are the swing factor for Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.’s earnings profile this quarter. The last quarter’s 473.00 million contribution underscores how tour flow, close rates, and pricing discipline collectively drive revenue volume and margin realization. With consensus pointing to 6.33% year-over-year top-line growth, the critical watch items are sell-through pace, the unit mix sold, and the alignment of marketing spend with qualified tour traffic. Efficient allocation of sales and marketing dollars often determines margin capture in this business model, and a higher-quality sales mix can support an improved gross profit margin even without outsized price increases. Investors will also be watching whether promotional activity remains measured; tightening promotional intensity relative to tour quality typically preserves gross margins and may translate into stronger EBIT, consistent with the 26.01% year-over-year EBIT improvement implied by estimates. Inventory availability and cost management remain essential operational considerations: maintaining adequate salable inventory at blended costs that do not weigh on margins can help sustain the EPS acceleration implied by the 32.46% forecast for the quarter.

Financing

The 128.00 million financing revenue contribution last quarter reflects the role of consumer loan yields and credit performance in Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.’s earnings. In the current quarter, the EPS forecast of 1.01 (+32.46% year over year) implies that financing income and the associated provision for loan losses will be focal points for investors in assessing the sustainability of earnings growth. Consumer credit metrics—including delinquencies, charge-offs, and the reserve build—directly affect net yields; an orderly credit environment paired with steady origination volumes can amplify EBIT flow-through. The interest-rate backdrop influences portfolio yields and funding costs; even with largely securitized structures, the spread between portfolio yields and cost of funds remains important for net income trajectory. Stronger financing margins this quarter would enhance EPS conversion from VOI sales, particularly if cash collections, seasoning trends, and payment performance remain stable. Observers will be attuned to any commentary on underwriting standards or the mix of fixed versus variable-rate loans, since these factors can shape medium-term financing revenue and risk-adjusted returns.

Resort and club management and rental

Resort and club management revenue of 193.00 million and rental and ancillary services of 186.00 million in the prior quarter illustrate the recurring backbone of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.’s model. These fee-based streams tend to be steadier, buffering volatility from VOI sales cycles and supporting cash generation. In the quarter ahead, occupancy patterns, member activity, and pricing for transient rental nights will be pivotal drivers of these lines. While the estimates do not include explicit gross margin or net margin guidance, the EBIT outlook of 216.90 million (+26.01% year over year) suggests improving operating leverage if these recurring segments maintain their cadence. The contribution from reimbursables (132.00 million) and sales, marketing, brand and other (188.00 million) also interacts with overhead allocation; disciplined cost control can translate recurring revenue resilience into better incremental margins. Any operational commentary regarding member engagement, club fee trajectories, and the balance between owner usage versus rental nights will help investors gauge the stability of these segments through the quarter.

Stock price drivers and guidance signals

The most influential stock price driver this quarter is the magnitude of the EPS surprise versus consensus, given the estimates imply a step-up to 1.01 and a robust 32.46% year-over-year expansion. Revenue momentum at 1.35 billion (+6.33% year over year) will frame the debate on whether demand inflection points in VOI sales are broad-based or mix-driven; sustained volume growth with stable promotional intensity would anchor a positive narrative. Gross margin commentary—though not explicitly forecast—will be parsed closely: if the selling mix and inventory costs converge toward higher-margin profiles, it can validate the EBIT acceleration implied in the estimates. Management’s outlook on marketing efficiency, tour quality, and cash conversion will likely be pivotal, particularly against last quarter’s EBIT of 157.00 million and year-over-year decline of 15.59%. The financing segment’s credit performance and yield dynamics could either amplify or dampen EPS conversion; supportive portfolio trends would strengthen the case for estimate durability. Finally, updates on capital allocation—such as share repurchases or balance-sheet priorities—can influence valuation perceptions, especially if cash flow from recurring segments continues to cover growth initiatives while preserving flexibility.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish vs bearish ratio for recent institutional commentary stands at 100% vs 0%, with supportive views emphasizing the improving earnings trajectory embedded in current-quarter estimates. Citizens JMP reiterated a Buy rating on Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., paired with a 50.00 price target, reflecting confidence in the company’s capacity to translate top-line expansion into EPS acceleration. The bullish framing aligns with the forecasted 6.33% year-over-year revenue growth, 26.01% year-over-year EBIT improvement, and 32.46% year-over-year EPS uplift, all of which suggest favorable operating leverage if sales mix and financing yields track in line with expectations. Proponents of the bullish case highlight the balanced revenue base—473.00 million in VOI sales and meaningful contributions from management, rental, reimbursables, and financing—which provides a foundation for steadier cash generation and mitigates volatility in any single line. A supportive outcome would include confirmation of disciplined marketing spend, stable gross margin trends, and consistent credit performance in the financing portfolio, translating into a cleaner pass-through from EBIT to EPS. With the quarter’s setup reliant on execution in VOI sales and resilience in recurring segments, the bullish view expects Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. to meet or surpass consensus on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market, validating confidence in the estimate trajectory and reinforcing the feasibility of sustained earnings growth if operational cadence holds.