Global financial markets were significantly influenced by developments in U.S.-Iran relations. Signs of easing tensions in the Middle East led to a broad rally in U.S. stock indices, with all three major indexes closing up more than 1% overnight. European markets also moved higher collectively, while international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with both WTI and Brent crude futures falling over 14% intraday. Analysts noted that a series of statements from U.S. President Donald Trump alleviated market concerns about further escalation, causing the VIX fear index to close down more than 2%. Current market focus remains on the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
In the early hours, according to a CCTV report, a spokesperson for the Central Command of the Iranian Armed Forces stated that Iran has gained the initiative in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea regions and has effectively taken control of the Strait of Hormuz. The spokesperson mentioned that Iran does not need to deploy naval mines in the Persian Gulf but will employ all necessary means to ensure security if required.
In a full-scale rebound on March 24 Eastern Time, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, though gains narrowed significantly from earlier in the session. The S&P 500 rose 1.15%, the Nasdaq gained 1.38%, and the Dow Jones increased by 1.38%. Major U.S. tech stocks broadly advanced, with Broadcom surging over 4%, Amazon rising over 2%, and Nvidia, Apple, and Meta each gaining over 1%. Google and Microsoft closed with modest gains.
Popular U.S.-listed Chinese stocks rallied across the board, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closing up 0.86%, halting a four-day losing streak. XPeng Motors and NIO both jumped over 7%, Futu Holdings climbed over 3%, Alibaba gained nearly 3%, Li Auto increased over 2%, while Pinduoduo, JD.com, Baidu, Trip.com, and Bilibili all posted modest gains.
European markets also staged a broad rebound. At the close, the Euro Stoxx 50, Germany's DAX 30, and Spain's IBEX 35 indices all rose over 1%, while France's CAC 40 and Italy's FTSE MIB gained 0.79% and 0.81%, respectively.
International oil prices plummeted sharply. WTI crude for May delivery settled at $88.13 per barrel, down 10.28%, while Brent crude for May delivery settled at $99.94 per barrel, falling 10.92%.
On the news front, according to a CCTV report, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he had held "productive talks" with Iranian leadership and consequently decided to delay a planned attack by five days. Trump later stated that the U.S. is consulting with Iran to determine if a broader agreement can be reached. He claimed, "This time, Iran is serious; they want reconciliation. The U.S. has eliminated all necessary targets within Iran, including its leadership." Trump added that Iran has one final opportunity to end threats against the U.S., suggesting the world will soon become safer.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video address on the 23rd that Trump indicated to him that "war objectives" against Iran could be achieved through "an agreement." However, Netanyahu also stated that Israel would "continue airstrikes against Iran and Lebanon."
In response, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf denied on social media on the 23rd that any negotiations with the U.S. had taken place, calling such reports "fake news" intended to manipulate financial and oil markets.
Chris Larkin, Head of Trading at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley, commented, "The market has been awakened by some potential positives, but for the rally to have staying power, tangible progress on the geopolitical front is likely needed. We still live in a headline-driven market."
Goldman Sachs trader Rich Privorotsky pointed out that Trump's actions over the past 72 hours followed a set pattern: signaling "considering de-escalation" on Friday, escalating to the toughest stance on Saturday, and announcing a "five-day pause" on Monday—first creating tension, then setting a deadline, finally offering a "way out" in exchange for domestically promotable results.
Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Ball noted that Monday's S&P 500 rebound did not change the core issue: high oil prices are boosting inflation expectations, potentially causing the Federal Reserve to remain on hold, thereby tightening financial conditions.
Regarding the situation, according to the latest CCTV report, the spokesperson for the Iranian Armed Forces Central Command stated that Iran has gained the initiative in relevant waters of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea and has established effective control over the Strait of Hormuz. The spokesperson stated that, based on current control capabilities, Iran does not need to deploy naval mines in the Persian Gulf but will use all necessary means to ensure security if required. He also emphasized that the Iranian armed forces, with cooperation from regional countries, are capable of maintaining security in the Persian Gulf, and that external countries have no right to intervene.
During the late U.S. trading session, reports indicated that several thousand U.S. Marines are expected to arrive in the Middle East by Friday. Specifically, the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, the amphibious transport dock USS New Orleans, and approximately 2,200 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, previously deployed in the Asia-Pacific region, will enter the area of responsibility of U.S. Central Command by Friday. The report also suggested it might take several additional days for the force to reach the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump told media that he hopes the Strait of Hormuz can reopen soon. When asked who would control the strait, Trump replied, "Perhaps me," adding that Iran's new leadership would also play a role in managing this globally critical waterway.
Brock Weimer of Edward Jones noted that the most convincing signal of de-risking would be the restoration of actual crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, rather than verbal statements.
Bob Doll, Chief Investment Officer at Crossmark Global Investments, stated, "In the short term, nothing is more important than oil prices—if oil falls, stocks rise, and vice versa."
According to a CCTV report, an Iranian military source stated that Iran has prepared new "surprises" for combat in the coming days, the implementation of which could yield "significant effects." The source claimed that "all of Trump's military options have failed," and he is seeking an exit, thus shifting the conflict from the actual battlefield to social networks. The source alleged that Trump is aware his offensive and defensive military capabilities are in a "very poor state," unable to achieve military victory or reopen the Strait of Hormuz, forcing him to resort to verbal attacks, which would only lead to further "loss of face." The source emphasized that, contrary to Trump's empty promises, Iran has prepared "surprise operations" for the coming days that will clarify the conflict's outcome.