Abstract

PROG Holdings, Inc. will report fourth-quarter fiscal results on February 18, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes the latest reported quarter, current-quarter projections, segment dynamics, and media updates since January 1, 2026, including the completion of the Purchasing Power acquisition on January 3, 2026.

Market Forecast

The current-quarter outlook points to softer topline and earnings versus the prior year based on the latest projections: revenue is estimated at $585.40 million, a decline of 4.45% year over year; adjusted EPS is estimated at $0.59, down 22.40% year over year; EBIT is estimated at $39.52 million, down 22.46% year over year. No company-provided or consensus forecast for gross profit margin or net margin was identified in the period reviewed. The main business continues to be lease-and-fee revenue, with management attention likely concentrated on balancing promotional activity and credit performance while scaling recently acquired assets. The most promising near-term growth lever is the newly acquired Purchasing Power business, though revenue and year-over-year growth contributions for the current quarter have not been disclosed and will depend on near-term integration pace and recognition timing.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, PROG Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $595.11 million, a gross profit margin of 36.40%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $33.12 million, a net profit margin of 5.57%, and adjusted EPS of $0.90, with adjusted EPS rising 16.88% year over year and revenue declining 1.82% year over year. GAAP net profit declined 13.93% quarter over quarter, reflecting a normalizing margin mix and seasonal shifts in operating expenses. The main business was anchored by lease-and-fee revenue of $556.58 million and finance receivables interest and fees of $38.53 million; year-over-year segment growth rates were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Lease-and-Fee Operations

Lease-and-fee revenue remains the core engine of PROG Holdings, Inc.’s quarterly performance, representing the vast majority of the topline in the last reported quarter. The current-quarter projections indicate consolidated revenue of $585.40 million, down 4.45% versus the prior year. Within this framework, management is expected to prioritize healthy merchandise availability and effective customer onboarding while managing early purchase options and promotional levers to stabilize trailing twelve-month profitability. The earnings algorithm for lease-and-fee can be sensitive to changes in average ticket size, early buyout activity, and write-offs; continued attention to underwriting consistency and collections efficiency will be key to protecting contribution margins. In the absence of a disclosed gross margin forecast, near-term profitability in the core business will be judged by how well the company contains product costs, navigates promotional cadence, and sustains a favorable mix of new agreements and renewals. The year-over-year decline in consolidated revenue suggests an emphasis on prudent offer qualification and balanced growth rather than volume expansion at the expense of margin durability, which aligns with the EPS and EBIT estimate trends for the quarter.

Purchasing Power Integration

On January 3, 2026, PROG Holdings, Inc. completed its $420.00 million cash acquisition of Purchasing Power, a voluntary employee benefit program provider. While the company did not disclose specific near-term revenue and year-over-year growth targets for this asset within the current quarter, integration objectives typically include aligning underwriting frameworks, streamlining channel operations, and harmonizing compliance and risk management controls across the broader credit stack. The immediate focus for this quarter will likely be systems integration, cost synergy identification, and the refinement of cross-sell strategies to maximize customer lifetime value without diluting risk discipline. Given the recent close, early contributions may be modest, but the asset has potential to broaden access pathways and enhance conversion within targeted customer cohorts. From an earnings perspective, any initial integration costs or onboarding inefficiencies could temporarily weigh on EBIT and EPS, consistent with the consolidated estimates indicating year-over-year declines. As integration milestones are met and operating rhythms stabilize, Purchasing Power could serve as a complementary growth vector that adds resilience across cycles, contingent upon disciplined execution and measured scaling.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Investors will likely focus on two quantitative drivers: the magnitude of the year-over-year decline in adjusted EPS and EBIT relative to estimates, and the cadence of revenue trends within the core lease-and-fee franchise. The estimates imply adjusted EPS of $0.59 and EBIT of $39.52 million, both down over 22% year over year, which sets a conservative expectation bar and heightens the importance of not only meeting earnings but also signaling an improving trajectory for subsequent quarters. Another crucial driver is how management frames the early integration of Purchasing Power—clarity on the timing of revenue recognition, any immediate synergy benefits, and anticipated integration expenses can shape both near-term sentiment and valuation multiples. Additionally, without a formal gross margin or net margin forecast, qualitative color around merchandise costs, early purchase mix, and collections behavior will be dissected to infer margin resilience; any indication that net margin compression is moderating could temper concerns raised by the EPS and EBIT outlook and support the stock if revenue proves stable. Collectively, the interplay of conservative earnings estimates, core segment revenue quality, and acquisition integration commentary will anchor investor reactions to the print and guide expectations for fiscal 2026 ramp dynamics.

Analyst Opinions

Published sell-side previews within the January 1, 2026 to February 11, 2026 window were limited, but coverage during this period has concentrated on the strategic completion of the Purchasing Power acquisition on January 3, 2026 and the implications for near-term earnings trajectories. Most institutional commentary observed in the period leaned toward a cautious posture centered on integration costs and the potential for short-term margin impact. Where views were expressed, they generally emphasized monitoring guidance for the combined entity’s early financial contributions and the discipline of credit and collections through the seasonally volatile first quarter period, which can influence subsequent earnings cadence after the current quarter’s report. Given the lack of widely distributed new rating changes or target revisions in the reviewed window, the majority perspective coalesces around tempered expectations for the quarter and a focus on qualitative updates from management—especially around integration progress, synergy timing, and margin stabilization signals—to reassess the path for earnings normalization across 2026.