Recent analysis by third-party application data firm Apptopia indicates that the growth of the ChatGPT mobile app may have peaked. The estimated data reveals that user growth, measured by the percentage change in global new downloads, began to slow down starting in April. Moreover, the growth in global daily active users has stagnated in recent weeks, entering a plateau phase.

The agency's research into the global daily active user growth indicates that this figure has leveled off over the past month. Although October is only halfway through, Apptopia projects an 8.1% decline in downloads compared to the previous month based on global download trends.

It is important to clarify that this refers to the growth in downloads rather than the total download count. When looking at the absolute figures of new installs, the ChatGPT mobile app is still performing well, achieving millions of downloads daily.

However, the stagnation in download growth may suggest a slowdown in the overall growth pace of the app. For ChatGPT, this trend may be attributed to intensified competition and adjustments in its AI model characteristics.

A deeper analysis of other data metrics reveals that the average usage time of daily active users in the U.S. has dropped by 22.5% since July, with the average number of uses declining by 20.7%. This indicates that American users are spending less time on the ChatGPT app and opening it fewer times daily. During this period, the user attrition rate in the U.S. market has also decreased and stabilized, implying that the app is currently retaining its core users more effectively, while the number of "trial users" who use it briefly and then abandon it has diminished.

OpenAI has not commented on this.

In addition to the core factor of "growth peaking," other reasons may affect ChatGPT's performance. These include competitive pressure from Google Gemini and shifts in user behavior following an update in April that aimed to reduce the AI chatbot's "conciliatory" nature. Furthermore, the GPT-5 model released in August reportedly exhibits a decrease in "human-like" qualities, continuing this trend.

However, Apptopia notes that before the significant rise of Google Gemini, average usage time and frequency of daily active users for ChatGPT were already on a decline. Google Gemini surged to the top of app rankings in September, thanks to the launch of Google’s new AI image model, "Nano Banana."

Therefore, the agency believes that while Gemini’s growth may influence the recent declines in some core metrics for ChatGPT, it cannot account for the overall trend.

Additionally, Apptopia suggests that a decline only in average usage time without a corresponding drop in usage frequency could imply that users are querying information more efficiently. However, since both metrics are currently declining, this is not due to increased efficiency.

Conversely, Apptopia argues that the "trial phase" of the ChatGPT app may have concluded, as it gradually becomes an integral part of users’ daily lives. Unlike the early days when user frequency was high, people are now more likely to use the app only when specific needs arise or when they remember it.

For OpenAI, this indicates that the company must invest in marketing the app or introduce new features to reinvigorate these core metrics, rather than relying solely on the novelty factor for growth.