Abstract

CF Industries Holdings Inc is scheduled to report its quarterly results on February 18, 2026 Post Market; this preview outlines consensus estimates for revenue, profitability, and EPS, reviews the prior quarter’s performance, and frames the key drivers and institutional sentiment heading into the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus tracking for the current quarter points to revenue of 1.78 billion, up 18.68% year over year, with EBIT estimated at 575.61 million, up 42.95%, and adjusted EPS around 2.55, up 66.28% year over year. Forecasts for gross margin and net profit margin are not disclosed, but the mix effect and realized pricing across ammonia, granular urea, and UAN will be central to the earnings power versus the company’s cost base. The core product suite remains positioned for seasonal demand into the spring application window, with shipment timing and realized prices expected to shape revenue recognition and margins. The most promising contributor by current revenue scale is Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN), which delivered 517.00 million last quarter; year-over-year detail by that segment is not available.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, CF Industries Holdings Inc reported revenue of 1.66 billion (up 21.10% year over year), a gross profit margin of 38.10%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 353.00 million, a net profit margin of 21.28%, and adjusted EPS of 2.22 (up 65.67% year over year). Operational performance was underpinned by EBIT of 580.00 million, which grew 59.34% year over year, indicating healthy throughput and pricing capture relative to feedstock costs, even as net profit sequentially eased by 8.55%. By product line, last quarter’s revenue composition was led by UAN at 517.00 million, ammonia at 457.00 million, and granular urea at 423.00 million, with ammonium nitrate at 122.00 million and other products at 140.00 million; year-over-year comparisons by product were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core nitrogen portfolio earnings cadence

The current quarter’s setup for the core nitrogen portfolio hinges on realized pricing in ammonia, granular urea, and UAN, the cadence of North American spring pre-plant applications, and the company’s feedstock cost trajectory. With consensus revenue at 1.78 billion and EBIT at 575.61 million, expectations imply sustained pricing premiums adequate to offset unit cost variability and normal seasonal logistics. The year-over-year step-up forecast in EPS to 2.55 suggests leverage from favorable product spreads and stable plant utilization, assuming no unexpected downtime. A notable check this quarter will be whether realized prices keep pace with input cost dynamics; the prior quarter’s 38.10% gross margin offers a reference point, but the absence of formal margin guidance elevates the importance of management’s qualitative commentary on pricing into the spring season and any updates on contract coverage or shipment pacing.

Beyond price capture, volume timing remains a critical swing factor. The company’s shipment windows and any pull-forward or push-out of orders can create intra-quarter variability across UAN and urea. Given the scale of last quarter’s UAN revenue at 517.00 million and granular urea at 423.00 million, even small changes in realized netbacks or product mix can meaningfully affect EBIT conversion. Investors will watch for any commentary on logistics, barge and rail availability, and order patterns from distributors into core agricultural regions, as these shape revenue recognition and short-term working capital. The sequential trend in net profit last quarter, down 8.55%, also sets a baseline for assessing if seasonal uplift and mix are adequate to renew momentum.

Feedstock costs represent the most immediate counterbalance to price. While the company did not provide explicit guidance for gross or net margins, the consensus uplift in EBIT (+42.95% year over year) implies confidence that realized selling prices minus cash costs will expand on an annual basis. The print and call will be scrutinized for evidence of cost discipline, plant reliability, and how maintenance schedules align with demand peaks; even modest deviations can influence margin cadence across the quarter.

Low-carbon ammonia initiatives and Blue Point JV trajectory

The low-carbon ammonia platform remains a strategic pillar that could progressively augment long-term valuation, even if near-term revenue contribution is limited. The company has disclosed recent progress on the Blue Point joint venture—formed with JERA Co., Inc. and Mitsui & Co., Ltd.—in which CF Industries holds a 40% stake. The venture’s mandate spans building, producing, and selling low-carbon ammonia, targeting decarbonization-linked demand pathways and potential offtake arrangements with power and industrial users. While the timeline from project progress to revenue realization can be extended, periodic updates on engineering, permitting, and commercial frameworks are incremental signals the market uses to gauge eventual capacity and contract visibility.

For the quarter at hand, investors primarily want clarity on capital allocation pacing for the low-carbon platform and any transitional operating costs. The narrative is less about immediate P&L impact and more about confidence in long-cycle returns relative to capital intensity. In practical terms, an early-stage pipeline that advances in line with disclosed milestones reduces project execution risk and supports the investment case that future EBITDA streams could be less cyclical, anchored by decarbonization mandates and contracted pricing structures. Any commentary that tightens timelines, identifies prospective offtakers, or delineates how the JV integrates with existing production footprints will be read as an indicator of momentum in this growth vector.

In sum, while investors should not expect material revenue from low-carbon ammonia this quarter, the qualitative direction matters. Updates that improve visibility on contracted demand and costs can influence the multiple, particularly in periods when core nitrogen earnings are moving with seasonal and input-cost variability. The interplay between today’s cash generation and tomorrow’s decarbonization project returns is a key narrative thread for this name in 2026.

What will move the stock around the print

Three focal points are poised to drive the share response: realized product spreads versus the prior quarter, guidance color for the spring application season, and capital return signals. The consensus modeling of 1.78 billion revenue and 575.61 million EBIT embeds the assumption that spreads remain constructive; if management’s commentary or disclosed realized pricing suggests a softer backdrop or a miss in shipment timing, the EPS sensitivity could be noticeable given the high incremental margins typical of these products. Conversely, confirmation of solid order books, limited logistical bottlenecks, and steady throughput would support the EPS path to 2.55 and potentially de-risk out-quarter assumptions.

Investors will also parse comments on cost inputs and planned maintenance. Unplanned outages or elongated turnarounds can dent utilization and margins, while disciplined maintenance aligned to softer demand weeks can help preserve quarterly earnings cadence. Details on inventory positioning, working capital trends, and any shifts in contract versus spot mix will add texture to margin sustainability into the spring window. Absent explicit gross or net margin guidance, these operational datapoints serve as proxies for directional confidence in profitability.

Finally, capital returns and balance sheet signals remain relevant. The company maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.50 per share with a payment date of February 27, 2026 to shareholders of record on February 13, 2026, underscoring a consistent baseline for shareholder returns. Any update on repurchase authorization usage would add to the total return profile and may help cushion volatility if earnings skew closer to the lower end of implicit market ranges. Overall, the magnitude and tone of management’s forward commentary—especially on demand progression and pricing—are likely to be the decisive drivers of the post-report reaction.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary between January and early February 2026 skews bearish when comparing bullish versus bearish stances, with multiple firms either maintaining cautious views or tilting negative. Notably, Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded the shares to Sell with a price target of $72 on February 4, 2026, and BofA Securities maintained an Underperform rating with a $78 price target on January 8, 2026. These negative stances outweigh positive calls over the same period, as other updates predominantly reaffirmed neutral or sector-perform views rather than explicit bullishness.

This caution is framed against a backdrop of consensus estimates that require an 18.68% year-over-year revenue increase and a 66.28% EPS increase to 2.55 for the quarter. Bearish analysts appear concerned that the earnings trajectory remains exposed to realized pricing and input-cost variability and that, while current model assumptions are achievable, they may not offer substantial upside surprise potential without a clear beat on spreads or volumes. The downgrade to Sell and the Underperform reiteration highlight the risk that earnings normalization and shipment timing could produce a more mixed print if price realization or product mix falls short of modeled levels.

Neutral recalibrations from several institutions reinforce this stance by emphasizing a watch-and-wait approach. UBS maintained a Hold rating with an $86 price target on January 30, 2026; J.P. Morgan maintained Neutral with an $80 target on January 15, 2026; RBC kept Sector Perform with a target lift to $95 on January 20, 2026; Scotiabank reiterated Sector Perform at $82 on February 2, 2026; and BNP Paribas Exane maintained Neutral at $90 on January 21, 2026. While these are not bearish per se, they do not counterbalance the negative ratings enough to form a bullish majority, and they tacitly acknowledge that upside catalysts may be limited without stronger evidence of margin expansion or favorable shipment dynamics.

From an analytical perspective, the bearish camp will judge the print on three scorecards: evidence that realized prices and volume timing sustain or exceed what is implied in the 575.61 million EBIT estimate; commentary that gross margin dynamics can be durable into and beyond the spring season; and clarity that capital deployment into low-carbon ammonia will translate into future contracted cash flows without materially diluting near-term returns. If the company delivers on spread maintenance and offers constructive forward color, the downside case weakens; if not, the caution embedded in Sell/Underperform calls could gain traction. On balance, for this earnings event, the majority institutional view leans bearish relative to a bullish countercase, making delivery against the consensus profit bridge and forward pricing commentary the core validation tests on February 18, 2026 Post Market.