Gold Market Trend Analysis: As of October 17, in the Asian trading session, spot gold (XAU/USD) maintained an upward trajectory, briefly touching $4,379 per ounce before retreating to around $4,300. Market sentiment is cautious, with investors continuing to increase their positions in safe-haven assets amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has been a primary factor driving gold prices up. With Congress unable to pass a funding bill, the shutdown is now entering its third week. According to estimates by U.S. Treasury officials, the shutdown could cost the U.S. economy up to $15 billion per week. The market generally believes that if the fiscal deadlock persists, the dollar will come under further pressure, thereby supporting gold prices denominated in dollars. However, the current gold price trends are driven by both macroeconomic factors and sentiment. With expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing risks from the fiscal shutdown, gold retains short-term upward momentum. Nonetheless, as geopolitical tensions ease, gold’s safe-haven appeal may gradually diminish.

On a technical level, with the Federal Reserve reiterating expectations for interest rate cuts this year, the market has reacted significantly, resulting in a sharp decline in the dollar and substantial gains for gold. On Thursday, gold surged nearly $200 in a single day, reaching a new high of $4,380. Initially, it seemed that an increase to $4,300 would be the limit, but the market's current momentum shows no signs of a peak. After gold broke through $4,000, Yang Chengfa noted that there is still considerable room for future gains, urging not to speculate on highs or short the market, but rather to go long for considerable profits. Key resistance points are anticipated at $4,200 and $4,500; with $4,200 already broken and a rise to $4,380, it is approaching the $4,500 milestone. The focus now is on whether the bullish momentum can continue into Thursday to reach new highs.

Technically, maintaining a bullish trend on Friday is expected, but cautious trading approaches should be employed, such as buying on dips. For example, following Thursday's rise, a retreat to the lows around $4,205 occurred; the support levels to watch on Friday are $4,315 and $4,280. If either of these levels holds without breaking, it may be an opportunity to go long. However, should prices unexpectedly fall below $4,280, high-level sell-offs could occur, potentially leading to a drop to $4,250, an unexpected market movement that cannot be ignored at current high prices. Overall, it is advisable to patiently wait for a pullback to critical support levels before considering long positions, assessing the possibility of reaching new highs around $4,500. In summary, today’s short-term trading strategy for gold is to primarily buy on pullbacks while also considering short selling on rebounds, with short-term key resistance at $4,380-$4,400 and support at $4,320-$4,300.

Oil Market Trend Analysis: In the international oil market, prices saw a slight retreat on Friday morning, driven by weak market sentiment as investors digest the complex changes in energy supplies and geopolitical conditions. Brent crude futures fell by 0.13% to $60.98 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude dropped by 0.12% to $56.92 per barrel. Over the week, both key oil price benchmarks have fallen by about 3%. Market analysts have pointed out that the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates a potential oversupply in the global energy market by 2026, leading investors to lower their medium- to long-term oil price expectations. Additionally, the upcoming diplomatic meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders has also emerged as a significant turning point for the oil market this week, as they plan to meet in Budapest in two weeks to discuss the possibility of resolving the Ukraine conflict.

From a technical perspective, oil prices have broken below the lower boundary of a trading range on the daily chart, indicating a bearish medium-term trend. The prices are experiencing significant daily declines, with the momentum consistently pointing downward. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines are widening below the zero axis, favoring bearish momentum. It is expected that the medium-term trend for oil will remain a downward fluctuation. After two days of minor adjustments in the short-term (1H), oil prices continued to decline, hitting a low of $56.80. The moving averages reflect a divergent downward trend, affirming that the short-term direction remains downward. In early trading, oil prices are consolidating at low levels without establishing a new minor pattern, suggesting that the downward trend will likely persist throughout the day. In summary, today's trading strategy for oil advocates selling on rebounds as the primary approach, with buying on pullbacks as a supplementary strategy. Short-term resistance is anticipated at $59.0-$60.0, while support levels are projected at $56.0-$55.0.