Abstract

Lucid Group Inc will report results on February 24, 2026 Post Market; this preview synthesizes consensus expectations, recent operational updates, and key drivers likely to shape revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

Consensus forecasts point to Lucid Group Inc generating revenue of 469.20 million this quarter, up 119.03% year over year, with adjusted EPS at -2.64 reflecting a 3.78% year-over-year decline, and EBIT expected at -816.68 million, down 14.97% year over year; margin guidance for gross profit and net profit has not been disclosed in company-level forecasts. The core business remains centered on vehicle sales and related services, with the outlook supported by continued delivery growth and early steps toward new model and production capacity expansion. The most promising contribution this quarter is expected from the vehicle sales line, where projected revenue of 469.20 million implies 119.03% year-over-year growth against a low base, while segment-level disclosure is not provided.

Last Quarter Review

Lucid Group Inc reported last quarter revenue of 336.58 million, a gross profit margin of -99.12%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -978.00 million, a net profit margin of -290.70%, and adjusted EPS of -2.65, which improved 5.36% year over year. Net profit declined 81.38% quarter over quarter, underscoring cost absorption challenges and the impact of scaling initiatives in the current phase of operations. The company’s main business delivered 336.58 million in total revenue, increasing 68.26% year over year; the segment breakdown was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main Business: Vehicle Deliveries and Revenue Trajectory

The company’s near-term performance hinges on its ability to convert demand into deliveries and sustain pricing while managing unit economics. Forecast revenue of 469.20 million represents a sharp 119.03% year-over-year rise, suggesting expectations for a meaningful uptick versus last year’s quarter, though consensus still anticipates adjusted EPS at -2.64 and EBIT at -816.68 million, pointing to continued losses as scale and cost improvements progress. Last quarter’s gross margin of -99.12% and net margin of -290.70% indicate the cost base remains elevated relative to revenue; the path to improving margins this quarter will largely depend on manufacturing efficiency, supplier cost trajectories, and mix effects as new programs ramp. Delivery momentum supports the top line: the company reported 15,841 vehicles delivered in 2025, a 55% increase year over year, providing a base from which to grow unit volumes into 2026, though management has recently signaled more conservative production guidance, which tempers expectations for immediate scale benefits in the current quarter.

Pricing discipline and incentives across markets will influence the revenue mix and realized ASPs. As the lineup broadens with new variants and trims, incremental volume could improve factory utilization, but pricing pressure and incentives may offset some gains in absolute margins. With prior quarter-on-quarter net profit contraction of 81.38%, investors will watch for signs of operational leverage this quarter — even modestly narrowing losses versus EBIT could indicate cost lines stabilizing as utilization improves. Given that gross margin guidance is not disclosed, any discussion from management around material cost, logistics, or warranty trends will be pivotal for interpreting the revenue-to-margin conversion in the reported numbers. The market will likely focus on whether adjusted EPS tracks closer to consensus or whether deviations reflect delivery timing, product mix, or temporary ramp costs.

Most Promising Business: Gravity SUV Ramp and Saudi Manufacturing Initiative

The most promising pathway for revenue and margin enhancement is the Gravity SUV program combined with the planned transition from assembly to full-scale manufacturing in Saudi Arabia. On January 14, 2026, the company indicated it plans to start making vehicles in Saudi Arabia this year and expects full-scale manufacturing by year-end at the new plant near Jeddah, with gradual production increases anticipated through 2027 and 2028, aiming for full capacity of 150,000 cars in 2029. While these developments are long-cycle, they matter for the current quarter because they shape expectations for production resilience and international footprint expansion, which can reduce dependence on a single manufacturing base and potentially unlock cost efficiencies and regional demand opportunities.

On January 21, 2026, the company announced a collaboration with Rockwell Automation to support the expansion of the Saudi facility, adopting FactoryTalk manufacturing execution system software and virtual training programs for general assembly, paint, stamping, body, and powertrain shops. These operational tools are designed to enhance throughput, quality, and training efficiency, factors that could improve future margins if implemented successfully. Although segment-level revenue contributions from the Saudi facility are unlikely to be material in the current quarter, the activities contribute to investor confidence in the production roadmap and signal management’s commitment to building durable capacity. The Gravity program’s ramp expectations are embedded in broader revenue forecasts; while the 469.20 million revenue projection for this quarter reflects company-level estimates, investors will look for commentary on Gravity’s order intake, conversion rates, and delivery timing to assess how close the program is to contributing meaningfully to quarterly revenue and margin metrics.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Sentiment around funding flexibility and guidance is a principal driver of the stock this quarter. On February 12, 2026, the company disclosed a 10-for-1 reverse stock split that took effect and coincided with share price pressure, as well as updated production guidance indicating the 2025 upper-bound production outlook had been reduced to approximately 18,000 vehicles, alongside an increased credit line from the Saudi Public Investment Fund to approximately 2.00 billion. While the credit facility bolsters liquidity and supports product development and ramp initiatives, the lower production outlook has weighed on expectations of near-term scale benefits, contributing to cautious sentiment into the print.

Operating margins and cash burn will be central to how the market receives the quarter. With consensus expecting adjusted EPS of -2.64 and EBIT at -816.68 million, there is little debate that the business remains in investment mode; the question is whether operating losses are narrowing relative to last quarter’s -942.02 million EBIT and how forward commentary frames the conversion of revenue into margin as capacity utilization improves. Any incremental detail on warranty costs, supplier agreements, and logistics efficiency — especially in relation to Saudi plant preparation — will help the market refine its outlook for gross margin improvement. The degree to which vehicle deliveries accelerate, relative to last year’s base, will also impact narrative around revenue growth sustainability; given the 119.03% year-over-year revenue forecast for this quarter, the market may be susceptible to disappointments if delivery pacing or mix shifts are weaker than implied.

Investor perception of long-term demand and operational execution remains sensitive to news flow. The January 21, 2026 Rockwell Automation collaboration announcement lifted the stock on operational optimism, but ratings updates and target changes from research houses have been more guarded. Into earnings, the stock is likely to react to any changes in delivery guidance, updates on Gravity timelines, and near-term margin commentary. If management provides clearer visibility on manufacturing scale milestones in Saudi Arabia and concrete steps for margin uplift — even without formal gross margin guidance — the market could recalibrate its near-term loss expectations. Conversely, if revenue comes in close to the 469.20 million forecast while losses remain near last quarter’s levels, the narrative may stay cautious, prioritizing balance sheet strength and execution evidence over top-line growth.

Analyst Opinions

The majority view is bearish. Based on the collected opinions within the time window, bullish views were absent while cautious-to-negative commentary dominated; the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions is 0:1, with the dominant stance leaning negative heading into the quarter. On January 14, 2026, RBC reduced its price target on Lucid Group Inc to 14.00 from 20.00 and maintained a Sector Perform rating, noting that the average rating across coverage is hold and the mean price target is 17.06, which highlights constrained upside expectations versus recent trading levels. RBC’s framing is significant: a lower target reflects tempered assumptions for near-term volume, margin progression, and cash usage, aligning with broader investor caution around production guidance and the timeline for margin improvement from new platforms and capacity additions.

In-depth, the bearish case centers on the gap between strong revenue growth forecasts and continued losses implied by the consensus EPS and EBIT trajectory. The forecast for this quarter’s revenue at 469.20 million and adjusted EPS at -2.64 suggests that, despite top-line improvement, operating leverage remains limited at present scale. Last quarter’s gross margin of -99.12% and net margin of -290.70% captured the substantial cost burden relative to revenue; bears argue that without clearer evidence of substantial margin uplift — through higher factory utilization, lower unit costs, and a favorable product mix — loss magnitude may persist longer than optimists expect. The recent 10-for-1 reverse stock split on February 12, 2026, paired with reduced production guidance upper bounds for 2025 and the need to expand the credit line by approximately 2.00 billion, further fuels concern that the timeline to self-funding is extended, heightening sensitivity to execution milestones in Gravity and the Saudi plant.

Critically, the negative or cautious ratings backdrop is not solely about demand skepticism; rather, it reflects a valuation lens balanced against prolonged investment needs and uncertain near-term margin catalysts. RBC’s cut underscores a view that even if deliveries rise and revenue grows rapidly year over year, profitability will lag until structural scale and cost improvements take hold. The market will be looking for signs in the February 24, 2026 Post Market release that the company is narrowing losses versus last quarter’s EBIT of -942.02 million and demonstrating operational traction that can sustainably raise gross margins from last quarter’s deeply negative level. Without such signals, bears expect that price targets will continue to embed discounts for execution risk and potential future capital needs.

To shift this narrative, management commentary needs to bridge the gap between strong revenue growth and improving unit economics. Evidence of cost-downs, supplier efficiencies, and manufacturing progress in Saudi Arabia — even at an early stage — could alter the majority view if accompanied by better-than-expected EPS and EBIT. Conversely, if adjusted EPS underperforms the -2.64 consensus or EBIT is closer to last quarter’s -942.02 million than to the forecast -816.68 million, the bearish majority view is likely to persist. For this quarter, the balance of analyst commentary suggests investors should expect a continuation of heavy investment with a focus on tangible operational milestones, while valuation and ratings remain constrained until signs of margin normalization become more visible.