British AI data center developer Nscale is pursuing a US stock market debut, armed with a hefty $103 billion contract portfolio. However, roughly 85% of that value is tied to just two names, Microsoft and Anthropic, and a significant portion of the agreements lacks secured financing.

According to Nscale's S-1 filing, Microsoft and Anthropic account for a combined $88.4 billion in contract value. Microsoft contributes approximately $43.8 billion, while Anthropic adds roughly $44.6 billion. Notably, the Anthropic deal has not yet secured formal financing commitments to fund the project, and it comes with a series of milestones and ongoing compute supply requirements. Reports indicate the IPO could target a valuation of up to $35 billion.

A glaring gap exists between Nscale's current operating scale and its $103 billion contract total. As of the end of August, only $2.6 billion worth of contracts were in active status. The company generated $140.6 million in revenue during the first half of the year, while posting a net loss of $1.02 billion. Whether these massive contracts can truly convert into revenue and cash flow will be a key point of scrutiny for the market as it evaluates Nscale's IPO valuation.

Two dominant clients drive 85% of contract value

Nscale's contract volume has expanded rapidly over the past three years, but that growth leans heavily on Microsoft and Anthropic. Since late 2025, Microsoft has signed multiple agreements with Nscale totaling about $43.8 billion, with terms extending into 2033. Anthropic signed a roughly $44.6 billion compute leasing agreement in August, planning to build an 8-gigawatt data center at a West Virginia site acquired earlier this year. The first 2 gigawatts are expected to become operational by 2028.

Yet this $44.6 billion deal is not locked-in revenue. According to the filing, the Anthropic agreement includes specific milestone requirements and strict standards for ongoing compute supply. If Nscale fails to meet those conditions, the contract could be terminated. Meanwhile, the company has not yet obtained binding commitments to finance the project.

This means the enormous contract value on Nscale's books does not equate to confirmed revenue or cash flow. The company acknowledges in its filing that the vast majority of its revenue comes from a small number of clients.

Deep NVIDIA ties create intertwined supply chain and financing risks

Beyond customer concentration, Nscale's deep relationship with NVIDIA also warrants attention. NVIDIA serves as both a significant shareholder and the core supplier of data center chips, while also backing roughly $860 million of Nscale's lease obligations. Last week, NVIDIA participated in a $3.1 billion financing package for Nscale, which includes $1 billion in convertible notes or non-voting shares.

This relationship means Nscale's expansion depends not only on customer orders but also on NVIDIA's financial and supply chain support. Nscale admits in its filing that its close ties with NVIDIA do not eliminate supply chain risks, and deliveries of the latest generation of AI accelerator chips could still face delays.

For a company that requires massive capital to build data centers continuously, the interconnection between customer orders, chip supply, and external financing amplifies the financial pressure of its expansion.

Contract conversion uncertainty and financing dependence are industry-wide trends

Forward contracts carry exit risks. In April, OpenAI withdrew from plans to jointly develop Stargate infrastructure projects with Nscale in Norway and the UK. Subsequently, Microsoft took over the Norwegian data center project, while Alphabet's Google plans to replace OpenAI in the UK project.

This pattern of customer concentration and financing reliance is not unique to Nscale. Estimates suggest that Microsoft and Meta Platforms, Inc. together account for about half of Nebius' annual revenue, and Microsoft represents roughly 67% of CoreWeave's 2025 revenue. Analysts note that these AI infrastructure companies face high leasing costs and strong dependence on debt financing, making revenue growth closely tied to financing availability.

For Nscale, whether the $103 billion in contracts ultimately materializes depends on multiple factors, including financing, data center construction, and customer performance. As AI infrastructure firms continue to ramp up capital spending, Nscale's ability to turn its massive forward contracts into stable revenue and cash flow will be a crucial metric for the market in assessing its IPO valuation of up to $35 billion.