As of September 29, with the CSI 300 posting cumulative gains of 17.4% year-to-date, all 19 products under Lin Yuan's management failed to outperform the benchmark index, with six products recording losses for the year.

Recently, AI, computing power, semiconductors, robotics, and telecommunications sectors represented by "young tech stocks" have led market gains, while "old economy stocks" including liquor, real estate, and coal have performed mediocrely. This reflects the extreme differentiation in the current market rally, with technology becoming the most favored direction.

Under this structural bull market, the performance of hundred-billion-yuan private funds has shown significant divergence. Products under private equity veteran Lin Yuan have failed to outperform the CSI 300 index, with some even recording losses.

According to Private Fund Ranking Network data, as of September 29, among Lin Yuan Investment's 19 products with performance records, only 9 showed positive returns over the past year, while 10 posted negative returns. The best-performing "Lin Yuan No. 218" product achieved a one-year return of 31.14%, failing to beat the CSI 300's 42.14% over the same period, with a six-month return of 9.97%, significantly trailing the CSI 300's 16.23%.

Underperforming CSI 300

As of September 29, with the CSI 300's year-to-date cumulative gain of 17.4%, all 19 products under Lin Yuan failed to outperform the benchmark, with six products posting year-to-date losses.

Data shows that as of September 26, "Lin Yuan Investment No. 205" had a unit net value of 1.0581 yuan, with year-to-date returns of only 4.64%; "Lin Yuan Investment No. 218" had a unit net value of 1.1144 yuan, with year-to-date returns of 8.38%. Meanwhile, the CSI 300 index had accumulated gains of 15.6% year-to-date, with the two major products underperforming the index by 10.96 and 7.22 percentage points respectively.

More notably, some products have fallen into loss territory this year. Six products including "Lin Yuan Investment No. 173," "Lin Yuan Investment No. 21," and "Lin Yuan Investment No. 36" posted year-to-date losses, with the No. 173 and No. 21 products declining nearly 4% year-to-date.

Taking "Lin Yuan Investment No. 173," established in October 2020, as an example, the product only surged in the three months following its inception before declining steadily. As of September 26, the product had fallen 24%, while the CSI 300 declined only 5.35% over the same period.

This year's bull market rally has not brought performance improvement either. "Lin Yuan Investment No. 173" has declined rather than risen this year, falling 3.77% as of September 26, while the CSI 300 gained 15.63% over the same period. Holders of this product collectively "missed" the bull market, failing to capture gains while experiencing every decline.

From a portfolio structure perspective, the weak performance of consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, which Lin Yuan has long heavily weighted, is the main drag on performance. Wilmar, which he researched multiple times this year, despite achieving 60.07% year-over-year net profit growth in the first half, saw its stock price decline 2.2% as of September 29, far below market averages. His steadfast "oral economy" track lacked elasticity compared to the strong performance of technology and cyclical sectors like telecommunications ETF (102.7% year-to-date gain) and non-ferrous metals ETF (63%).

Although Lin Yuan's funds have dabbled in technology stocks, purchasing a batch of STAR Market stocks over the past 12 months, Lin Yuan recently stated at an event that his investment in tech stocks was "negligible."

Regarding his purchase of STAR Market stocks, he explained that recent holdings were passive operations. The core reason was that Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market new stock subscriptions require market capitalization, so one of his funds passively completed the relevant allocation to meet subscription conditions. He also candidly admitted that investing in the STAR Market has caused him great distress: "After getting involved, it's been very painful for me. I regretted it after buying, losing sleep for many nights. Because once I buy, I don't sell."

Hundred-Billion Private Equity Landscape Reshuffles, Discretionary Funds "Fall Behind"

Lin Yuan Investment's performance struggles are not isolated. From a strategy perspective, quantitative private funds have outperformed discretionary long-only funds this year. According to statistics, from January to July 2025, 16 hundred-billion-yuan discretionary private funds averaged 13.59% returns, with 15 achieving profitability and only 9 exceeding 10% returns. All 36 hundred-billion-yuan quantitative private funds achieved profitability, with average returns reaching 18.92%, and nearly 90% (32 funds) exceeding 10% returns.

Since the beginning of the year, over 10 private funds have fallen out of the hundred-billion-yuan camp, with discretionary long-only funds being the hardest hit, including well-known institutions like Baoyin Investment, Banxia Investment, and Heyuan Fund.

Heyuan Fund, founded by star fund manager Guan Huayu who moved from public to private funds, became a typical case of losses. Its assets under management fell from hundred-billion peaks, with cumulative losses of up to 25% across products, 4 products liquidated early, and 6 products managing less than 10 million yuan. Similarly unsuccessful was Li Bei of Banxia Investment, whose managed product failed to outperform the CSI 300 over the past year, with nearly 20% drawdown over two years, triggering massive redemptions and forcing an exit from the hundred-billion camp.

This year's performance differentiation among hundred-billion private funds essentially reflects the varying degrees of strategy-market style alignment. Lin Yuan Investment's predicament stems from the mismatch between its investment strategy and the structural market conditions. Similarly, the "setbacks" of institutions like Heyuan Fund and Banxia Investment largely resulted from adhering to traditional value investing frameworks while failing to timely capture opportunities in technology and cyclical sectors.

In an article titled "What Did I Miss? What Did I Do Wrong?" published on June 9 this year, Li Bei mentioned lacking deep research in technology, niche consumption, and pharmaceuticals.

In contrast, leading quantitative private funds have captured opportunities in subdivided tracks like AI computing power and innovative drugs through high-frequency strategies, fully benefiting from sector rotation dividends.

Regarding future markets, Lin Yuan maintains long-term optimistic views, firmly bullish on China's stock market. While unable to confirm whether A-shares have officially entered a bull market phase, he believes the current market is in the process of evolving toward a bull market. From a risk perspective, overall market risks remain controllable with relatively low risk levels.