CITIC has released a research report forecasting that J&T EXPRESS-W (01519) will achieve profits of USD 319 million and USD 470 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 37 and 25 for those years. The firm maintains an outperform rating. Given the upward trend in sector valuations, it reiterates the target price of HKD 11.1, which corresponds to P/E ratios of 40 and 27 for 2025 and 2026, offering a 9% upside from the current price. Recently, the company disclosed its Q3 2025 operational data: its Southeast Asian business volume increased by 79% year-on-year to an average of 21.7 million packages per day; its Chinese business volume rose by 10% year-on-year to an average of 60.6 million packages per day; and new market volumes grew by 48% year-on-year to 1.1 million packages per day. The firm believes that the company’s volumes in Southeast Asia and new markets have exceeded expectations, and is optimistic about the company's international market share expansion. In Southeast Asia, the volume may remain the largest in the market, bolstered by the growth of social e-commerce. The firm reiterates that the express delivery landscape in 2025 is expected to optimize, with EBIT per package remaining stable. It views the Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market as still in a phase of rapid growth, and predicts that this year’s trend towards free shipping in Southeast Asian e-commerce is likely to further stimulate consumer online shopping habits. Thus, J&T, with its leading market share in express delivery, is expected to maintain a significant advantage over other third-party logistics providers thanks to economies of scale. According to company announcements, the market shares of the third-party logistics providers ranked fourth and fifth have decreased year-on-year by 1.2 percentage points to 5.5% and by 0.9 percentage points to 4.4%, while J&T's market share has increased by 5.4 percentage points to 32.8%. In terms of e-commerce share, platforms such as TikTok lead in exploring incremental markets due to their inherent advantages in content e-commerce, allowing J&T, as a third-party logistics provider, to capture a substantial share of the growing demand. The firm reaffirms that the Southeast Asian express delivery landscape is expected to see further optimization this year, with J&T's volume projected to grow by over 50% year-on-year and EBIT per package remaining stable due to cost optimization. Regarding new markets, industry development is still in its early stages, and the company’s volume growth is expected to maintain high increases alongside e-commerce penetration. According to Mottainai Venture Capital, the GMV of TikTok Shop in Brazil has surged 45 times since launching in May, rising from USD 1 million to USD 46.135 million by August. The firm believes that the Latin American e-commerce sector is also in its nascent phase, and J&T, as a third-party logistics supplier for both Chinese outbound e-commerce platforms and local Latin American platforms like Mercado Libre, is poised to benefit from the rise in e-commerce penetration, maintaining high volume growth. In China, the company faces short- to medium-term challenges due to price wars, but conditions may ease in the second half of the year with a trend towards "anti-involution,” with close observation of cost optimization progress.