Abstract

Robinhood Markets, Inc. will report quarterly results on February 10, 2026, Post Market; this preview consolidates current-quarter forecasts, last-quarter performance, business trends, and majority analyst opinions from January 01, 2026 to February 03, 2026.

Market Forecast

The current-quarter outlook points to continued top-line acceleration: revenue is estimated at $1.34 billion, up 42.20% year over year, with EBIT of $0.71 billion, up 72.77% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 0.62, up 41.02% year over year. Forecast margin data has not been formally guided; consensus embeds further operating leverage consistent with recent mix and scale progress.

Trading commissions remain the core revenue engine, supported by robust activity across equities, options, and crypto, while net interest benefits from larger margin and cash sweep balances. The highest near-term upside potential sits in trading commissions at $0.73 billion last quarter, underpinned by strong activity indicators including August crypto notional volumes up 154.00% year over year and equity notional volumes up 107.00% year over year.

Last Quarter Review

Robinhood’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $1.27 billion, a gross profit margin of 93.01%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $0.56 billion, a net profit margin of 43.64%, and adjusted EPS of 0.61, with adjusted EPS up 258.82% year over year.

A noteworthy highlight was profitability inflecting higher alongside improved operating leverage, with net profit rising 44.04% quarter over quarter. By business, trading commissions generated $0.73 billion, net interest contributed $0.46 billion, and other revenues were $0.09 billion, while operating metrics from the recent period show supportive tailwinds in customer assets, margin utilization, and securities lending revenue growth.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Trading Commissions

Trading commissions are positioned to drive the greatest absolute revenue dollars this quarter, following a $0.73 billion contribution last quarter. Activity breadth matters: options contracts, equity notional, and crypto notional collectively set the pace for this line. Recent monthly indicators from August 2025 showed equity notional volumes up 107.00% year over year, options contracts up 33.00% year over year, and crypto notional volumes up 154.00% year over year, suggesting the activity base entering the current quarter was significantly larger than the prior year. These shifts typically correlate to higher order flow revenue on options and equities and wider spreads in crypto trading, driving blended take and enhancing the scalability of the commission stack.

Momentum is also being supported by continued product rollouts that have broadened the customer set and engagement frequency. As more complex and higher-value products onboard, user cohorts with larger balances and higher trading intensity can improve average revenue per user. The mix between options and crypto is particularly important given their elasticity to volatility: higher realized volatility can lift both trading frequency and monetization rates, creating upside to the revenue estimate if market conditions remain active through the quarter.

One watchpoint is seasonality and the timing of market events, which can skew monthly comparables and intra-quarter cadence. Periods of subdued volatility or sharp directional markets can compress trading intensity, but with diversified activity across equities, options, and crypto, the commissions line has multiple levers to stabilize aggregate volumes. The embedded revenue forecast, up 42.20% year over year at the company level, implicitly assumes the activity base remains elevated relative to the prior year with stable conversion to revenue.

Net Interest

Net interest delivered $0.46 billion last quarter, supported by larger customer balances and the margin book. August 2025 metrics showed margin balances up 127.00% year over year and total cash sweep balances up 50.00% year over year, both constructive for current-quarter accruals. As long as customer assets remain near recent highs and deposit flows continue, interest income from margin loans and sweep programs should stay solid, offering a partial buffer against episodic trading slowdowns.

The shape of the short end of the yield curve and internal pricing decisions influence realized yields, but the scale of balances is the core driver. Even if benchmark rates begin to migrate, a larger absolute base of margin and sweep balances can sustain net interest dollars due to volume effects. Securities lending is another lever: monthly data showed total securities lending revenue of $53.00 million in August 2025, up 165.00% year over year, indicating improved availability and economics in hard-to-borrow names; this supports the “other/interest-adjacent” monetization channels that complement net interest.

Credit risk management and collateralization standards matter as margin books expand. Healthy underwriting discipline, paired with dynamic risk controls, helps maintain losses at bay and preserves the income stream. The forecasted EBIT growth of 72.77% year over year reflects an expected contribution from higher-yielding assets and scale efficiencies; stability in balances would be consistent with the revenue and EPS outlook.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The first determinant is delivery against the top-line estimate of $1.34 billion and the EPS estimate of 0.62. Upside surprise would likely come from stronger-than-anticipated trading commissions, with crypto and options activity acting as high-beta swing factors. Given the monthly indicators heading into the quarter, raised engagement levels in risk-on stretches could translate into better realized take rates and revenue-per-trade metrics, though realized volatility and market breadth will ultimately calibrate the upside.

The second determinant is operating leverage relative to revenue growth. Last quarter’s gross margin of 93.01% and net margin of 43.64% illustrated the benefit of scale on a technology-heavy, largely fixed-cost platform. The EBIT estimate of $0.71 billion, up 72.77% year over year, implies sustained efficiency gains. Investors will look for evidence of expense discipline, unit-economics resilience in newer products, and whether incremental margins remain elevated as revenue expands.

The third determinant is the trajectory of balance-driven income and ancillary monetization. Margin balances and cash sweep levels influence net interest, while securities lending and institutional flows can supplement “other” revenue. The degree to which these lines hold or improve will shape the quality of earnings and the visibility of cash generation. Stability in balances alongside continued customer asset growth would support the earnings algorithm embedded in the current-quarter forecasts.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent commentary, the majority stance is bullish. A large sell-side cohort skews to Buy or Strong Buy, while Hold and Sell views are in the minority. One recent initiation reiterated that the setup combines a high-growth top line, expanding margins, and accelerating product momentum, with the path to sustained profitability supported by a broader and more balanced mix across crypto, options, and interest-sensitive lines. The same view pointed to a rare combination of high incremental margins—nearly 60.00% EBITDA and roughly 80.00% incremental on the current scale—framing upside risk to operating leverage if revenue tracks or beats the current quarter’s forecast.

The bullish case emphasizes three themes. First, revenue durability from multiple engines: trading commissions benefited from elevated activity levels through mid- to late-2025, and engagement trends in crypto and options signal a wider funnel entering the period. Second, margin expansion from a largely fixed-cost backbone: last quarter’s 93.01% gross margin and 43.64% net margin illustrate the economics of scale, and the current-quarter EBIT estimate of $0.71 billion, up 72.77% year over year, assumes that cost discipline extends the operating leverage cycle. Third, product pipeline and customer mix improvements: rollouts targeting larger, wealthier customers, alongside expansion into adjacent offerings such as credit cards and institutional channels, are seen as broadening monetization without materially increasing unit costs.

In this framing, bullish analysts view the consensus revenue estimate of $1.34 billion and adjusted EPS of 0.62 as achievable with potential for upside if trading intensity remains elevated and if balance-related income holds firm. Monitoring points for this cohort include realized volatility into and through the print, the performance of crypto trading relative to the prior quarter’s strong base, and any incremental disclosures on new product monetization that could extend the earnings trajectory into subsequent quarters. The majority perspective expects that the earnings mix continues to tilt toward scalable, high-margin revenue, sustaining the expansion in profitability implied by the forecasts for revenue up 42.20% year over year and EPS up 41.02% year over year.