On March 20, an analysis indicated that China's merchandise exports in 2025 demonstrated stable and robust growth. By 2026, regions including Hong Kong, Vietnam, India, and Thailand are expected to make significant contributions to export volumes. Conversely, trade deficits are more pronounced with Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil, Switzerland, and Chile, where balanced trade could be improved by automotive exports. The high-quality development of industries such as motorcycles also signals substantial potential for automobile exports.
In terms of average export prices: against the backdrop of RMB appreciation, the overall average export price in US dollars for 2026 remains relatively low, placing considerable cost-reduction pressure on enterprises. This underscores the importance of addressing internal competition. Among the "new three" export categories, electric vehicles stand out prominently.
In February 2026, vehicle exports reached 740,000 units, a 76% year-on-year increase. From January to February, exports totaled 1.54 million units, up 59% year-on-year. Following new policies on used car exports, automotive exports continued to exceed expectations, with average prices performing strongly—significantly better than exports of lithium batteries and solar cells.
China's merchandise trade has experienced explosive growth over the past 40 years, rising from $22 billion in 1981 to $3.5758 trillion in 2024, establishing a strong upward trend. Despite challenges, export performance remained exceptionally strong during the three years affected by the pandemic, providing substantial support to the national economy. This growth has positively impacted global supply chains for daily necessities and contributed to domestic employment and income growth.
The surge in Chinese exports has driven a significant increase in global maritime trade, with a sustained boom in shipbuilding continuing to this day. Notably, China's trade surplus has grown robustly, shifting from a persistent deficit before 1994 to a sustained surplus thereafter, reaching a high of $1.1889 trillion in 2025.
In 2026, China's merchandise exports maintained strong growth, with January-February exports reaching $656.6 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase. February alone saw exports hit $299.9 billion, the highest February level on record, with a 39% growth rate. Overall, China's merchandise exports in 2026 exhibited stable and robust expansion.
China's trade surplus has remained consistently high in recent years, averaging nearly $1 trillion annually. In the first two months of this year, the surplus exceeded $100 billion per month, with February maintaining a healthy level.
Exports to major regions showed exceptional growth in early 2026, increasing by $237.9 billion year-on-year in January-February, reaching a total of $612.6 billion. Significant surpluses were recorded with Europe and the United States, including a $47.8 billion surplus with the U.S. and a $51.3 billion surplus with Hong Kong. Surpluses with India and Vietnam averaged around $10 billion monthly. Despite global demand challenges and external pressures, China's export performance remained outstanding.
The highest export growth in 2026 was observed in intermediate regions transshipping goods to the U.S., where Chinese products performed strongly. However, exports to Russia and some traditional transshipment countries were moderate.
Trade with the United States saw robust growth after President Biden took office in 2021, influenced by pandemic-related factors. Exports rose from $452.1 billion in 2020 to $581.6 billion in 2022, maintaining strong growth through 2025. The trade surplus with the U.S. has consistently exceeded $300 billion annually in recent years, with January-February 2026 figures reflecting steady growth in transshipment trade.
Automotive exports have been particularly outstanding. China's main export commodities—electromechanical and high-tech products, including electronic components and technology—have shown strong growth. Among specific items, mobile phone exports peaked in early 2022 before moderating. Within the "new three" categories, electric passenger vehicle exports surged 94%, while passenger vehicle exports grew 67% in 2026. Lithium battery exports increased by 46%, and solar cell exports rose by 3%. Auto parts exports also reached record highs, highlighting the greater importance of automotive exports compared to batteries and other products.
Export volumes and values varied significantly across commodities. Prices for items such as storage components, fertilizers, container ships, refrigerators, and motorcycles remained relatively firm in recent years. In contrast, average prices for meat, luggage, footwear, and grains declined substantially, hitting annual lows. Efforts to curb internal competition primarily target these lower-priced categories.
In January-February 2026, 25% of export commodities were in high-price brackets, while 53% were at the lowest price levels. Sixty-nine percent of product categories were priced below the 50th percentile. Overall, unit prices declined due to RMB appreciation and lower US dollar valuations, enhancing export competitiveness.
Lithium battery exports, a key advantage among the "new three," performed excellently with high profits and strong market demand. Since 2021, exports grew from $28.4 billion to $50.9 billion in 2022, and further to $64.9 billion in 2023, before declining by 6% in 2024. In 2025, exports reached $76.8 billion, and in the first two months of 2026, they totaled $14.2 billion, up 46% year-on-year.
Solar cell exports, another key product, experienced significant volatility, with severe declines in recent years due to intense internal competition. Exports surged during the Russia-Ukraine crisis, rising steadily from 2020 to a peak of $92.8 billion in 2022. However, they fell to $87.6 billion in 2023, $61.2 billion in 2024, and $56.4 billion in 2025—an 8% decline. In January-February 2026, exports reached $8.2 billion, up 3% year-on-year.
Automotive exports have shown remarkable performance in recent years, rising from $34.5 billion in 2021 to $117.4 billion in 2024, with sustained growth into 2025. A surge in the fourth quarter brought annual exports to $142.4 billion, generating significant foreign exchange. Among the "new three," energy storage-related lithium battery growth was moderate, while automotive exports reached $27 billion in January-February 2026, up 67%—a record high—demonstrating strong vitality in the sector.
Auto parts and complete vehicles represent distinct demand systems targeting different markets, resulting in varying growth rates. While Chinese vehicle exports largely avoid the U.S. market, auto parts exports are primarily directed there. Auto parts exports have long achieved high values, remaining above $8 billion in January-February 2026, supported by overseas vehicle demand.
Motorcycle exports, like auto parts, serve different markets and exhibit divergent growth patterns. While vehicle exports are minimal to the U.S., motorcycle exports are diversified globally. Motorcycle exports have seen substantial growth in recent years, with strong unit prices. The motorcycle industry serves as a model for the automotive sector, having developed strong competitiveness through electrification and market-based pricing, despite limited domestic market support.