According to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, the primary reason for the current short-term weakness in precious metals is not geopolitical instability, but rather the inflation risks triggered by rising crude oil prices. The current pullback in gold is a cyclical adjustment, with its long-term structural trend remaining unchanged. Silver, however, is more vulnerable overall due to its tie to industrial demand and the unstable nature of investment flows, exhibiting significantly weaker risk resistance. Hansen analyzes that rising energy prices, a strengthening US dollar, escalating inflation expectations, combined with the widespread market anticipation that US interest rates will remain high for an extended period, are collectively pressuring non-yielding assets, directly pushing gold prices to a three-week low. With Brent crude oil prices currently exceeding $100 per barrel, market attention is intensely focused on the chain reaction of inflation stemming from rising energy costs. Investment vitality driven by artificial intelligence continues to solidify the US economy, also reducing the Federal Reserve's impetus for near-term rate cuts. This, coupled with the simultaneous release of major tech company earnings reports and central bank policy meetings, has further amplified short-term market uncertainty.

Macro Outlook: Short-Term Pressure Does Not Alter Long-Term Foundation Hansen points out that the overall trend of precious metals is currently moving entirely in sync with changes in the energy market. The restoration of key shipping lanes and a subsequent decline in oil prices would be the core catalysts for a precious metals rebound in the near term. Persistently high oil prices and inflation data continue to reinforce the US dollar's strength, thereby delaying the global interest rate cutting cycle. Geopolitical conflicts only exert short-term pressure on precious metals and cannot overturn the long-term upward logic. The various core drivers that have supported gold's strength over the past two years remain solid, with some favorable conditions continuing to strengthen. The latent risk of global stagflation persists, as the energy crisis continues to impact price levels and economic activity, while national fiscal debt levels keep expanding. Against the broader trend of a gradually weakening US dollar reserve status, central banks in many countries are持续推进 reserve asset diversification. Gold, as a high-quality safe-haven asset, sees its long-term allocation value continuously increasing.

Diverging Performance: Gold's Support is Solid, Silver is Fraught with Risks From a technical perspective, gold's key support levels are clear and well-defined. The 200-day moving average around $4,250 per ounce is a crucial defense line for the long-term trend. As long as this support holds effectively, gold's long-term upward trajectory will not be broken. Compared to the steady gold, the market environment for silver is more complex. Hansen believes that silver's deep ties to industrial sector demand mean that an economic downturn, combined with high inflation and slowing growth, would directly dampen silver demand from manufacturing, electronics, and consumer goods industries. Furthermore, the investment funds that maintain the supply-demand balance for silver are highly uncertain; slight changes in market sentiment or the macro environment can trigger rapid capital inflows and outflows. This makes silver a highly volatile precious metal with greater elasticity, offering larger potential upside but simultaneously amplifying downside risks.

Allocation Value Analysis: Divergent Gold-Silver Dynamics Lead to Different Investment Strategies Once geopolitical conflicts gradually ease and energy supply chains return to stability, gold is expected to strengthen again, supported by multiple favorable factors including central bank purchasing, reserve allocation, and geopolitical risks. Leveraging its acyclical attributes, gold can effectively hedge against impacts from demand contraction and sentiment fluctuations. Although silver's fundamentals remain positive, its performance heavily depends on the strength of industrial demand recovery and the activity of investment funds. Its subsequent price action is likely to maintain wide fluctuations. Looking at the gold-silver ratio, the current value is near 62. Compared to the long-term average of 70, silver's valuation is already at a high level. For silver to sustain strength, it would require new positive catalysts such as supply contraction or a significant rebound in demand.

In summary, the bull market in precious metals is merely taking a brief pause, not ending completely. Gold is suitable for long-term strategic allocation, offering steady performance and resistance to volatility. Silver is more appropriate for short-term tactical trading, combining high potential returns with high risk, requiring investors to remain vigilant against the risks posed by its sharp price swings during the investment process.