As ongoing Middle East conflicts continue to disrupt the global energy system, market expectations for supply recovery are being extended further. The CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation stated that even if the Iran conflict ends, it would still take several months for Gulf crude oil production to fully restart, suggesting elevated oil prices may persist for an extended period. Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, explained that due to numerous oil wells being shut down during the hostilities, Gulf nations would require "months" to return to full production capacity. He noted that over 6 million barrels per day of production capacity is currently idled in the region, with the actual impact potentially being larger. The delay in supply restoration means any decline in oil prices will also be postponed. Currently, US and European benchmark oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, while spot prices in the Middle East have surged above $180, indicating a significant widening of regional price disparities. Analysis identifies the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz as the central factor in the current energy shock. Under normal circumstances, this strait handles approximately 20% of global oil and natural gas shipments, but threats and military actions by Iran have severely disrupted the global energy supply chain. Al-Sabah stated plainly that using pipelines to bypass the strait or tapping strategic petroleum reserves "cannot even serve as a temporary alternative." Presently, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are transporting some crude via pipelines to circumvent the strait, while the US and other nations are releasing strategic reserves to address the supply shortfall. However, JPMorgan analysis indicates these measures can only offset about 20% of the lost supply, far from sufficient to restore normal flows. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, also emphasized that the current issue is "not a supply problem, but a security problem," asserting that the only long-term solution is restoring safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and that "this crisis cannot be resolved through trade measures." Meanwhile, geopolitical risks continue to intensify. Former US President Donald Trump claimed negotiations with Iran had begun, but Iran has denied this, leaving the prospect for talks unclear. Former US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis warned that if the conflict fails to resolve control of the strait, Iran might turn it into a "toll passage," charging fees for transit tankers, which would pose a long-term shock to global energy markets. Industry insiders widely believe the full economic impact of the current disruption has not yet materialized, and even if the conflict ends, its effects could linger into next year or beyond. Energy consulting firms project international oil prices will average around $95 per barrel in 2026, potentially rising to $100 per barrel in 2027. Furthermore, some industry executives point out that current international oil prices do not fully reflect the extent of the actual supply contraction. If the conflict is not quickly alleviated, oil prices in European and American markets could converge with the higher levels seen in the Middle East, potentially leading to a repricing of the global energy price system.