Three major international agencies—EIA, IEA, and OPEC—agree that global oil supply growth in 2026 will be driven by non-U.S. and non-OPEC+ producers, while demand growth will be led by non-OECD countries. Compared to their November reports, both EIA and IEA have raised their 2026 oil demand growth forecasts, except for OPEC, which already held an optimistic outlook. From a supply-demand balance perspective, surplus pressure in 2026 is expected to concentrate in the first half, particularly the first quarter, suggesting that international oil prices may stabilize after bottoming out next year.

The EIA predicts that rising oil production and accelerated winter demand declines will lead to continued global oil inventory growth into 2026, with daily stockpiles increasing by over 2 million barrels. This is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. Brent crude is projected to average $55 per barrel in Q1 2026, remaining near this level for the rest of the year. However, OPEC's production policies and China's strategic reserve increases could limit further price declines. The EIA's December report forecasts global oil supply at 107.43 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, against demand of 105.17 mb/d, resulting in a surplus of 2.26 mb/d—up 20,000 b/d from 2025. The surplus will peak in Q1 before easing in Q2 and Q3, aligning with seasonal trends. Demand growth will be almost entirely driven by non-OECD nations, particularly China and India, with the EIA revising China's oil demand forecast upward based on higher expected GDP growth. On the supply side, the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, and Canada—alongside OPEC—will drive production increases, collectively accounting for over 50% of global growth in 2025 and an estimated 60% in 2026.

OPEC maintains its 2026 GDP growth forecast at current levels, citing resilient oil demand. Expanded fiscal spending in major economies like Germany, Japan, India, the U.S., and China, coupled with accommodative monetary policies, is expected to sustain economic momentum. Global oil demand is projected to rise by 1.4 mb/d year-on-year in 2026, led by non-OECD countries. OECD demand is estimated to grow by 200,000 b/d, primarily in the Americas, with modest gains in Europe and a slight recovery in Asia-Pacific. Non-OECD demand is set to surge by over 1.2 mb/d, with Asia as the key driver, supported by India, China, the Middle East, and Latin America. OPEC expects non-U.S., non-OPEC+ supply to dominate in 2026, with non-OPEC output rising by 600,000 b/d to 54.8 mb/d, unchanged from last month's forecast. Growth will stem from offshore projects in Latin America and the Gulf of Mexico, Argentina's tight oil production, and Canadian oil sands expansions.

The IEA has raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast by 860,000 b/d to 104.79 mb/d, citing fading tariff concerns and improving macroeconomic expectations. It simultaneously trimmed supply growth projections due to sanctions impacting Russian and Venezuelan exports. The agency lowered its 2026 global oil surplus estimate from 4.046 mb/d in November to 3.815 mb/d this month—a 231,000 b/d reduction—marking its first downward revision since the current production expansion cycle began.