On September 15, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (300750.SZ) saw its stock price break through 371.52 yuan during trading, hitting a new high since December 2021, with total market capitalization surging past 1.6 trillion yuan. The stock closed at 354.70 yuan, up 9.14%.
Since the beginning of this year, CATL has gained nearly 40%. Its surge has also driven up battery and energy storage related stocks. Sungrow Power Supply surged over 10% intraday, also hitting a record high. Additionally, new energy vehicle stocks performed well, with BYD and Seres rising 2.63% and 3.04% respectively.
CATL's breakout was driven by multiple catalysts.
On one hand, CATL has received strong support from domestic and international analysts. Morgan Stanley recently released a report noting that as CATL achieves breakthroughs in European markets while smaller competitors struggle with profitability in the crucial energy storage sector, combined with the currently hot solid-state battery technology being viewed as short-term hype, CATL's leading advantage will continue. Its valuation has become significantly attractive among peers, making it "the cheapest in the industry."
Multiple domestic securities research institutes have given CATL "buy" ratings after the release of its 2025 interim report. Pacific Securities pointed out that CATL's profitability is steadily improving, with innovative product matrix upgrades building new growth engines. Considering the company's global leading position in power batteries and energy storage batteries, as well as expanded financing channels after Hong Kong listing, capacity expansion and technological iteration are accelerating. Pacific Securities raised its profit forecasts for CATL and maintained a "buy" rating.
On the industry front, the National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration recently issued the "Special Action Plan for Large-scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025-2027)." The plan sets an overall target of reaching new energy storage installed capacity of 180 million kilowatts (180 gigawatts) or more nationwide by 2027, driving direct project investment of approximately 250 billion yuan, with lithium-ion battery storage remaining the main technological route for new energy storage.
As a major bull stock from 2020 to 2021, CATL benefited from the development of the new energy industry at that time, achieving its first "coronation." In 2020 and 2021, the company's annual gains reached 230.48% and 67.55% respectively. In early December 2021, CATL hit its then-historical high, with stock price breaking above 360 yuan. After experiencing dormancy and controversy, today's re-"coronation" forms a stark contrast with Longi Green Energy, the former new energy "twin star."
As a photovoltaic leader, Longi Green Energy and CATL "bloomed together" during the 2020-2021 new energy sector surge. Their gains in 2020 and 2021 reached 274.66% and 31.19% respectively. Both peaked at the end of 2021, but after nearly four years, while CATL hit new historical highs, Longi Green Energy has remained depressed for an extended period, with current stock price down over 70% from its peak.
The divergence of the "twin stars" - one reborn, one fallen - still reflects fundamental changes: CATL has maintained steady earnings growth with interim net profit up 33.33% year-over-year, while Longi Green Energy continues to suffer massive losses due to industry overcapacity and persistently low product prices.
The divergence of the former new energy "twin stars" is also a microcosm of A-share's structural bull market.
Guohai Securities' financial engineering team described the concepts of "low valuation trap" and "high growth trap" in an earlier research report:
Low valuation investment strategy refers to making stock buy and sell decisions based on changes in company valuations, seeking to select and hold low-valuation assets that have been "killed on valuation." The strategy's core is judging whether stock valuations are high or low. When "undervalued" assets' valuations cannot be restored as expected, it triggers the "low valuation trap."
High growth investment strategy refers to investors believing that companies in high-speed earnings growth have higher prosperity. Initiating growth-style market environments typically requires higher market sentiment or loose liquidity, with long cycles usually going through three different stages: "valuation sentiment - earnings delivery - valuation sentiment." High valuation state corrections or insufficient fundamental quality support will trigger the "high growth trap."
The cases of CATL and Longi Green Energy vividly illustrate that only companies that can achieve sustained earnings outperformance through technological innovation and market expansion during high valuation phases can cross cycles and achieve a "royal return."
Furthermore, looking purely at recent stock performance, the "king" CATL from the previous bull market and the new favorite "AI king" Cambricon from this bull market often show alternating rises and falls, which is quite intriguing.
Today, Cambricon opened higher and rushed above 1,500 yuan before quickly adjusting. The stock remained weak for most of the day, with only a brief rebound around 11 AM, closing down over 3%. Other core technology stocks like Accelink Technologies and Industrial Fulian also opened and closed lower.
Huatai Securities pointed out that domestic funds continue to be active recently, with the trend of switching from small-cap to large-cap stocks weakening but not reversing. The characteristic of focusing on industry trends remains obvious, but there are signs of loosening in group investing. Domestic fundamental medium-term upward expectations are at least difficult to disprove, and trading activity is relatively high with expanding money-making effects. They recommend maintaining relatively high position operation but need to moderately return to cost-effectiveness and prosperity.
Guotai Haitong also pointed out that China's stock market will not stop, and the market is expected to expand.
Guotai Haitong believes that emerging technology is the main theme, with cyclical finance as a dark horse; Hong Kong stocks are expected to continue rising. As China's economic visibility increases, opportunities in the Chinese market are broad, and China's stock market "transformation bull" is comprehensive, not merely structural. There are both expansionary opportunities in emerging technology and valuation restoration in traditional sectors and value discovery in quality companies.
Regarding investment themes, Guotai Haitong recommended four tracks: 1. Commercial aerospace: With satellite mobile communication license issuance, they are optimistic about investment in liquid rockets/satellite payloads/launch sites under the resonance of technological innovation and scenario breakthroughs. 2. Anti-involution: Comprehensive governance of "involutionary" competition is accelerating, optimistic about paper/breeding/lithium battery/energy storage benefiting from pattern optimization and price expectation improvement. 3. AI applications: Policy leadership accelerates industrial scale development, optimistic about application implementation in finance/office/gaming sectors and domestic computing power penetration improvement. 4. Embodied intelligence: The robotics industry is moving from technological exploration to large-scale commercial use, optimistic about key components and lightweight materials benefiting from technological upgrades and scaling.